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Petrobras loses $14 billion in market cap after stiffing dividend hopes
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Petrobras loses $14 billion in market cap after stiffing dividend hopes
Mar 8, 2024 7:15 AM

SAO PAULO, March 8 (Reuters) - A meager dividend from

Brazil's state-run oil company Petrobras sent its

shares plunging on Friday, erasing more than 70 billion reais

($14 billion) from its market value as analysts questioned how

the firm would spend its growing cash reserves.

The more than 10% drop in shares reflects investors' biggest

frustration yet with Chief Executive Jean Paul Prates, who has

tried to balance the interests of minority shareholders with a

leftist government eager to see more capital spending.

Petrobras has been a major cash cow for its shareholders in

recent years, including the Brazilian government, with the prior

management paying out far more than Western oil major peers.

Under new management picked by President Luiz Inacio Lula da

Silva, the company had pared back its payouts, but an

extraordinary dividend was still widely expected in the market.

Goldman Sachs analysts told clients that investors had

expressed expectations of a $3 billion to 4 billion

extraordinary dividend in addition to the predetermined year-end

payout.

In a fourth-quarter earnings release late on Thursday,

Petrobras said it would only pay a routine dividend of 14.2

billion reais ($2.9 billion) to shareholders.

"The message that was passed is very clear: Investors should

expect only minimum dividends for Petrobras," analysts at

JPMorgan wrote, saying the fourth-quarter payout represents a

meager dividend yield of 8.1% in 2024, "substantially below that

of peers that typically deliver returns in the low teens."

The lack of an extra dividend also triggered a slew of

downgrades from analysts, including at Bank of America, Bradesco

BBI and Santander.

Preferred shares in Petrobras plunged more than 10% to 36.16

reais in Friday morning trading in Sao Paulo, responsible for

dragging the benchmark Bovespa stock index 1.4% lower.

The decision "heightens the risk perception at Petrobras,

particularly on the government influence regarding major capital

allocation decisions," analysts at Bank of America wrote in a

note to clients while downgrading the stock to neutral.

Nixing the extra dividend means that Petrobras "could be

pivoting to an agenda more focused on growth in renewables

(triggering higher capex with lower returns) and increases the

probability that the company could pursue M&A," they said.

Analysts at Bradesco BBI also downgraded the firm, saying

they believe "flows could move away from Petrobras to Chinese

oil companies given the recent turnaround in capital discipline

and strong buyback programs," also mentioning Saudi Aramco.

BTG Pactual analysts struck a more balanced tone, noting

that Petrobras had set aside 43.9 billion reais in a fund

earmarked for "capital remuneration."

"So using it for other purposes will require

amendments to the bylaws," they added.

Petrobras reported a 6.3% drop in its fourth-quarter net

recurring profit to 41 billion reais, beating expectations of

35.3 billion reais among analysts polled by LSEG.

($1 = 4.9769 reais)

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