NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Dealmakers are bracing for
a slowdown in global mergers and acquisitions in the fourth
quarter as companies postpone pursuing big targets ahead of the
U.S. elections, hoping this will only be a temporary setback
before a rebound next year.
Following are comments from investment bankers and M&A
lawyers on the near-term outlook for dealmaking:
TOM MILES, GLOBAL CO-HEAD OF M&A, MORGAN STANLEY
"We haven't seen any $50 billion-plus deals. If you look in
history, you usually see a good number of larger transactions.
And that does move deal volume up. If that's the measure, the
lack of $50 billion-plus deals does affect the volume number
that people reference. It is clear that the lack of larger deals
is a direct result of the regulatory pressures that exist. It's
hard to get a $50 billion deal done in any sector. Energy had a
few of them over the course of the last couple years, but you
haven't seen many very large transactions in sectors like
healthcare and tech.
"The number of $1 billion to $10 (billion) or even $10
billion-plus deals is pretty strong. This has not been a slow
year in that regard. The corporates have done a good number of
deals in that $1 billion to $10 billion and $10 billion to $20
billion area and that's been an active market. People are saying
that the market isn't very strong, but truth is that it's been
active, and corporates are continuing to deploy capital into
M&A."
ERIC TOKAT, CO-PRESIDENT OF INVESTMENT BANKING, CENTERVIEW
PARTNERS
"I do anticipate 2025 to be a robust year for M&A. There's
quite a bit of activity across the board. The question is which
ones turn into actual large deals, but we do see quite a bit of
momentum. When I look at the deal pipeline today, we are more
optimistic and more positive than negative, versus what we were
looking at a couple of quarters ago."
JAY HOFMANN, CO-HEAD OF M&A, NORTH AMERICA, JPMORGAN
"Companies are looking to do big, creative deals, but will
only pull the trigger over the next couple of months if there is
low risk... We're still in an environment where buyers want to
transact down the middle of the fairway from a strategic
rationale point of view."
FRANK AQUILA, SENIOR M&A PARTNER, SULLIVAN & CROMWELL
"There is a much greater level of activity with M&A being a
much higher corporate priority for many clients. This is largely
because the U.S. should continue to have good economy - not
necessarily the very strongest economy, but certainly not a weak
economy - over the next year. As a result, boards and
managements are not very concerned about a recession in the near
term. Couple that with interest rate cuts, and you certainly are
looking at the right environment for deals.
"There is a high likelihood that we will see European and
Japanese companies focused on doing acquisitions in the U.S.
They recognize that there is the potential for much greater
revenue and profit growth in the U.S. over the next several
years than in their home markets. We will see other cross-border
activity, but particularly inbound M&A in the U.S. is going to
be a focus. I think that we will see further consolidations in
certain sectors, such as healthcare, financial services and
tech. Given these signs, it all bodes well for the final quarter
of 2024. But more than that, it really is a signal we're going
to see a very strong start to 2025."
ADAM EMMERICH, CO-CHAIR OF WACHTELL LIPTON'S CORPORATE
DEPARTMENT
"I don't think people are very clear on what either (the
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or Democratic
rival Kamala Harris) administration would mean for various
different aspects of the regulatory picture. The majority of
deals signing up now would be closing in a new administration."
EAMON BRABAZON, CO-HEAD OF EMEA M&A, BANK OF AMERICA
"There's been a real expansion in both deal velocity and
deal type. The full toolbox is being used, and that's a good
sign.
Over the next couple of years, the expectation is that we
will see an above trend level of sponsor exits, possibly
exceeding prior historical peaks."