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QUOTE BOX-M&A seen slowing ahead of US elections after uneven third quarter
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QUOTE BOX-M&A seen slowing ahead of US elections after uneven third quarter
Sep 26, 2024 11:25 PM

NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Dealmakers are bracing for

a slowdown in global mergers and acquisitions in the fourth

quarter as companies postpone pursuing big targets ahead of the

U.S. elections, hoping this will only be a temporary setback

before a rebound next year.

Following are comments from investment bankers and M&A

lawyers on the near-term outlook for dealmaking:

TOM MILES, GLOBAL CO-HEAD OF M&A, MORGAN STANLEY

"We haven't seen any $50 billion-plus deals. If you look in

history, you usually see a good number of larger transactions.

And that does move deal volume up. If that's the measure, the

lack of $50 billion-plus deals does affect the volume number

that people reference. It is clear that the lack of larger deals

is a direct result of the regulatory pressures that exist. It's

hard to get a $50 billion deal done in any sector. Energy had a

few of them over the course of the last couple years, but you

haven't seen many very large transactions in sectors like

healthcare and tech.

"The number of $1 billion to $10 (billion) or even $10

billion-plus deals is pretty strong. This has not been a slow

year in that regard. The corporates have done a good number of

deals in that $1 billion to $10 billion and $10 billion to $20

billion area and that's been an active market. People are saying

that the market isn't very strong, but truth is that it's been

active, and corporates are continuing to deploy capital into

M&A."

ERIC TOKAT, CO-PRESIDENT OF INVESTMENT BANKING, CENTERVIEW

PARTNERS

"I do anticipate 2025 to be a robust year for M&A. There's

quite a bit of activity across the board. The question is which

ones turn into actual large deals, but we do see quite a bit of

momentum. When I look at the deal pipeline today, we are more

optimistic and more positive than negative, versus what we were

looking at a couple of quarters ago."

JAY HOFMANN, CO-HEAD OF M&A, NORTH AMERICA, JPMORGAN

"Companies are looking to do big, creative deals, but will

only pull the trigger over the next couple of months if there is

low risk... We're still in an environment where buyers want to

transact down the middle of the fairway from a strategic

rationale point of view."

FRANK AQUILA, SENIOR M&A PARTNER, SULLIVAN & CROMWELL

"There is a much greater level of activity with M&A being a

much higher corporate priority for many clients. This is largely

because the U.S. should continue to have good economy - not

necessarily the very strongest economy, but certainly not a weak

economy - over the next year. As a result, boards and

managements are not very concerned about a recession in the near

term. Couple that with interest rate cuts, and you certainly are

looking at the right environment for deals.

"There is a high likelihood that we will see European and

Japanese companies focused on doing acquisitions in the U.S.

They recognize that there is the potential for much greater

revenue and profit growth in the U.S. over the next several

years than in their home markets. We will see other cross-border

activity, but particularly inbound M&A in the U.S. is going to

be a focus. I think that we will see further consolidations in

certain sectors, such as healthcare, financial services and

tech. Given these signs, it all bodes well for the final quarter

of 2024. But more than that, it really is a signal we're going

to see a very strong start to 2025."

ADAM EMMERICH, CO-CHAIR OF WACHTELL LIPTON'S CORPORATE

DEPARTMENT

"I don't think people are very clear on what either (the

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or Democratic

rival Kamala Harris) administration would mean for various

different aspects of the regulatory picture. The majority of

deals signing up now would be closing in a new administration."

EAMON BRABAZON, CO-HEAD OF EMEA M&A, BANK OF AMERICA

"There's been a real expansion in both deal velocity and

deal type. The full toolbox is being used, and that's a good

sign.

Over the next couple of years, the expectation is that we

will see an above trend level of sponsor exits, possibly

exceeding prior historical peaks."

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