(Adds Subaru and S&P Ratings)
Dec 18 (Reuters) - Honda ( HMC ) and Nissan ( NSANF )
are in talks to deepen ties, two people said on Wednesday,
including a possible merger, the clearest sign yet of how
Japan's once seemingly unbeatable auto industry is being
reshaped by challenges from Tesla and Chinese rivals.
Here are comments from experts:
KOJI ENDO, SENIOR ANALYST AND HEAD OF EQUITY RESEARCH, SBI
SECURITIES, TOKYO:
"If Honda's ( HMC ) hybrid cars are supplied to Nissan ( NSANF ) and
Mitsubishi Motors ( MMTOF ) and if they can sell them, the three companies
would all be better off since that would expand the sales
channel.
"The holding company scheme, rather than a merger, appears
to be the key as they can minimise the risks while taking the
benefits of integration.
"The question now is what will happen to Renault's 15% stake
in Nissan ( NSANF ). Renault may completely part ways with Nissan ( NSANF ) through
selling the shares."
SANSHIRO FUKAO, EXECUTIVE FELLOW, ITOCHU RESEARCH INSTITUTE,
TOKYO:
"This deal appears to be more about bailing out Nissan ( NSANF ), but
Honda ( HMC ) itself is not resting on its laurels. Honda's ( HMC ) cash flow is
set to deteriorate next year and its EVs haven't been going so
well. Honda ( HMC ) itself needs to change drastically. It may need to
spin off its motorcycle business and it should establish a solid
financial base from engine cars. If these are made easier by a
setting up a holding company (with Nissan ( NSANF )), then that would be a
positive thing for Honda ( HMC ).
"If their thinking is no more than 'we can manage this by
getting together,' I don't think they can survive any longer.
The speed of Chinese automakers is totally different. We're no
longer in the age where carmakers would join together, churn out
profits through economies of scale and then reinvest them in a
five-year restructuring plan. They have no time for that."
TANG JIN, SENIOR PRINCIPAL RESEARCHER, MIZUHO BANK, TOKYO:
"Honda ( HMC ) has a unique, technology-centric culture with
strengths in powertrains, so there should be some internal
resistance to the merger with Nissan ( NSANF ), a competitor with a
different culture that is now faltering.
"Honda ( HMC ) itself doesn't have such abundant management
resources. It faces a major challenge of how it can accelerate
its shift to electrification by making money from hybrids and
motorcycles. Nissan ( NSANF ), on the other hand, has no choice.
"The car industry is currently undergoing rapid changes ... so
if the two companies cannot make decisions and execute them in
unison and at speed, they may not be able to keep up with the
changes."
SEIJI SUGIURA, SENIOR ANALYST, TOKAI TOKYO INTELLIGENCE
LABORATORY, TOKYO:
"Honda's ( HMC ) internal opinion is probably split and not
monolithically supportive of the merger. Because their
motorcycle business is doing well. For the four-wheelers, they
certainly have problems, but they weren't in dire straits
either.
"In the mid- to long-term, this is good for the Japanese car
industry as it creates a second axis against Toyota ( TM ).
Constructive rivalry with Toyota ( TM ) is a positive for the rather
stagnating Japanese car industry when it must compete with
Chinese automakers, Tesla and others."
ATSUSHI OSAKI, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF TOYOTA-AFFILIATED JAPANESE
CARMAKER SUBARU:
"It's too much of a hurdle to do it all by one company," he
said, referring to the challenge of electrification facing
carmakers.
S&P GLOBAL RATINGS:
"Even if the two companies merge, it would take time for
synergies to have a positive impact on their creditworthiness,
in our view.
"The combined annual global sales of the two companies would
exceed 7 million units, which could help cut costs through
economies of scale and facilitate growth.
"As the auto industry shifts to electric vehicles, companies
face heavy investment burdens, including battery manufacturing
and software development.
"However, both companies have developed their businesses
based on their own strategies. We therefore believe it will be
difficult for them to produce significant effects quickly
through expanding the scope of their collaboration to include
batteries, software, and autonomous driving."