SINGAPORE, Oct 6 (Reuters) - Japanese shares surged to
record highs on Monday, while the yen sank after fiscal dove
Sanae Takaichi was elected to lead the ruling party and become
the next prime minister.
Takaichi's victory has raised chances that the Bank of Japan
will avoid lifting interest rates this month, though the pause
may not last if it batters the yen.
The Nikkei surged past the 47,000 level for the
first time, while the yen weakened over 1.5% to hover
near the psychologically important 150 per U.S. dollar.
Here are some comments from investors and analysts:
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE:
"Takaichi's win signals continuity in Japan's policy mix,
fiscal support and accommodative monetary settings are likely to
stay in place. That could mean a delay from the BOJ to tighten,
keeping financial conditions loose.
"With policy unlikely to shift soon, the yen stays under
pressure - not collapsing, but also not finding safe-haven
demand unless there's a shock. It remains the go-to funding
currency in global markets.
"That keeps the yen as the preferred funding currency for
carry trades, at least until we get closer to the 150-152
intervention zone.
"The policy continuity and weaker yen narrative should keep
supporting Japanese equities - especially exporters and
companies benefiting from inbound tourism and defence spending."
HITOSHI ASAOKA, CHIEF STRATEGIST, ASSET MANAGEMENT ONE,
TOKYO:
"The Nikkei was on course to reach as high as 48,000 by
year-end, but because Takaichi was chosen as the LDP leader, it
shot up toward that level already.
"The market welcomes her spending policy, but whether she
can achieve that goal is not certain, as the LDP is still a
minority party. The Nikkei may retreat once before year-end."
TAKAMASA IKEDA, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, GCI ASSET
MANAGEMENT IN TOKYO:
"The market was lifted by a Takaichi surprise and when
investors realise the reality, the momentum will fade. The
hurdle for Takaichi to achieve her goal is high and she may be
able to achieve perhaps only 10% or 20% of what she wants to
do."
ALEX LOO, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE:
"Knee-jerk reaction higher in USDJPY and Japan equities as
her past views read to investors that she will ramp up fiscal
spending and drive Japan back towards Abenomics. Investors also
discounting a BOJ move in October but we caution against this.
"The Tankan survey reflected favorable business sentiment
and if branch regional managers feedback today also indicate
that Japan is weathering through tariffs, the BOJ should
continue with rates normalisation or risk falling further behind
the curve. We don't expect USDJPY to stay above 150 for long
given US shutdown fears and the eventual compression in US-Japan
rates differential."
CHRIS WESTON, HEAD OF RESEARCH, PEPPERSTONE GROUP LTD,
MELBOURNE:
"We're in the eye of the storm - we've heard a lot, we know
her stance from the first election. She's been a little bit more
coy in this LDP leadership race.
"We know she's a strong advocate of the Bank of Japan
keeping policy on hold. We also look to the Trump administration
[when considering central bank independence but] it's the BOJ
who has the loss of independence. The market's saying here that
she'll have some say. The repricing we've been seeing does
suggest that people bet she'll have some influence on the BOJ
thought process going forward.
"People are getting concerned about BOJ policy being behind
the curve and they've left it quite late. Inflation is in a
different spot in Japan. You could argue terminal pricing has
been too low. If markets get a whiff that she's going to do
Abenomics-lite, it could keep bond buyers out of the market. She
does need to tread a careful path if she goes down that road.
She'll be very cognisant of the UK's example."