10:46 AM EDT, 07/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday note that it expects "below-average surprise potential" heading into the financial reporting season for the second quarter.

RBC said although its estimates indicate some "some variance" versus consensus, "directionally this is already in line with our view of positioning and recent share price performance, in our view limiting the potential for surprise." RBC added its estimates vs consensus are positive for Agnico Eagle (AEM.TO) and Kinross (K.TO), with both companies forecasting good free cash flow (FCF) compared to the senior group.

RBC said its estimates are below consensus for Barrick Gold ( GOLD ) and Gold Fields, with both companies expected to report low FCF compared to the senior group.

Key operational updates are anticipated from the likes of Agnico (Upper Beaver economics); and Barrick (PV ramp-up update, also material to NEM and RGLD); and Kinross (Manh Choh ramp-up) and Newmont ( NEM ) (asset sale update a larger surprise factor, despite weak 2Q ops), according to RBC.

A "quieter" quarter is expected for the royalty group, with minimal variance in RBC's estimates compared to consensus forecasts. Across the royalties, RBC noted some surprise for Wheaton Precious Metals ( WPM ) (inventory changes could swing EPS); and Osisko Royalties (RBC expects guidance will be revised lower post Eagle issues); and Triple Flag (leadership commentary is a focus, post CEO departure risk rumours).

For mid and growth producers, RBC forecasts are below the consensus estimate for the likes of Centerra (lower grade/operating challenges). For Alamos, RBC highlighted near-term updates on the PDA project and Argonaut closing/updated guidance.