(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, the
former head of communications at the Bank of England and a
former senior editor at Reuters)
By Mike Peacock
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - European Union leaders
meeting in Davos this week can be forgiven for fixating on the
multiplying threats to the world order - such as U.S. President
Donald Trump's bid to acquire Greenland - but they cannot afford
to do so at the expense of their long overdue economic reform.
It's been more than a year since former European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi produced an ambitious roadmap for euro
zone reform, yet little progress has been made. That's a big
problem because without rapid acceleration soon, reform may
simply never happen, leaving the EU lagging ever further behind
the U.S. and China.
Draghi's blueprint calls for 800 billion euros ($930
billion) of investment annually for several years to boost
regional innovation, competitiveness and security. He cited IMF
calculations that reducing internal barriers to U.S. levels
could cause sluggish EU productivity to leap about 7% in seven
years.
CHART - https://www.datawrapper.de/_/le1Kn/
But even the prospect of a productivity burst hasn't been
enough to jumpstart the slow-moving, consensus-driven EU
machine.
Only 10% of Draghi's proposed measures have been implemented
thus far, according to a report by the Brussels-based European
Policy Innovation Council last September.
The European Commission is trying. Its president, Ursula von der
Leyen, launched a multi-pronged strategy last year aimed at
pursuing many of Draghi's recommendations. But EU heads of
government ultimately set the pace of change, and several have
been less eager to move quickly.
For instance, some newer eastern EU members oppose extending
majority voting while Germany and the Netherlands have pushed
back against expanding mutual borrowing.
The opposition of a single leader can scupper the best-laid
plans, and that's precisely why now is the time to act. France's
presidential election in 2027 may deliver a far-right leader who
would likely oppose any further EU integration and who might
even seek to reverse it.
If that occurs, all bets would be off.
UKRAINE FUNDING DEAL POINTS THE WAY
To determine how best to move forward, the bloc's leaders
need look no further than last month's EU deal to fund Ukraine's
war effort against Russia for the next two years. It could point
the way for Europe's wider reform drive.
While EU leaders failed last month to deploy some 200
billion euros of frozen Russian assets to keep Ukraine afloat,
all but three of the 27 agreed on a 90 billion-euro loan.
That outcome underscores a key Draghi observation: the EU's
frequent requirement for unanimity paralyses progress.
To counter this, qualified majority voting could be extended
to more policy areas. As a last resort, like-minded nations
could even go it alone on some projects, Draghi said.
Von der Leyen made a similar plea in her State of the Union
speech last year, saying: "It is time to break free from the
shackles of unanimity."
Unfortunately, a sweeping change would mean altering the EU
Treaty, and that would require - you guessed it - unanimous
backing by EU leaders.
But addressing the unanimity conundrum may be necessary
regardless of the challenge if any other meaningful reforms are
to be passed.
The Ukraine deal hits on another previously touchy subject:
joint EU borrowing. The loan - which Kyiv will likely not be
required to repay -- was mutually underwritten by 24 nations.
That's after all 27 EU members agreed in 2020 to jointly
borrow 800 billion euros for the bloc's pandemic recovery plan.
That was sold as a one-off crisis measure to placate states like
Germany and the Netherlands. But the Ukraine bailout shows there
may be more appetite for mutual financing than previously
thought.
NOBODY'S PERFECT
December's Ukraine deal offers another lesson: don't let the
perfect be the enemy of the good.
The bloc certainly won't be able to address all of Draghi's
prescriptions, but leaders can tackle the parts of the report
that don't challenge the bloc's biggest taboos.
For starters, the EU could complete the long-discussed
capital markets union and simplify a regulatory system that is
fragmented across 27 states.
The European Commission has made progress on establishing a
single rulebook for the bloc, covering corporate law,
insolvency, labour, and tax law. But businesses complain the
progress here is too slow.
The EU's proposed savings and investment union would create
a single capital market that could attract more of the 35
trillion euros of EU household savings that are dispersed across
member states and often invested outside the bloc.
Experts warn that, even with political backing, this plan
would take years to implement, but that's no reason not to get
the clock running as soon as possible.
CHART - https://www.datawrapper.de/_/lhv8D/
The bloc's next long-term budget, which will cover
2028-2034, represents another opportunity for making progress.
The proposed 2 trillion-euro package is intended to boost
competitiveness, but it risks being diluted by key member states
such as Germany.
Europe has a history of acting just in time. But given
everything EU leaders face today - the bloc's productivity,
investment and innovation deficits as well as a crumbling world
trade order, an aggressive Russia, and an increasingly
unreliable U.S. - they are behaving with remarkably little
urgency. Time is short.
The views expressed here are those of Mike Peacock, the former
head of communications at the Bank of England and a former
senior editor at Reuters.
Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest
(ROI), your essential new source for global financial
commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X.
And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify ( SPOT ),
or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists
discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a
week.
($1 = 0.8625 euros)
(Writing by Mike Peacock
Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)