(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters)

By Ron Bousso

LONDON, April 20 (Reuters) - The stop-start shipping

traffic through the Strait of Hormuz underscores the profound

uncertainty hanging over the world's most critical oil and gas

chokepoint. But one thing is already clear: even if the guns

fall silent, flows through the narrow waterway will take months

- and possibly years - to recover to pre-war levels.

Iran said on Saturday that it was tightening control over

the strait in response to a U.S. blockade on Iranian tankers,

firing at several vessels and warning mariners that the strait

was closed. This was only hours after Tehran announced a

temporary reopening amid a 10-day ceasefire.

U.S. President Donald Trump said negotiations were ongoing,

while threatening to resume military action if shipping was

disrupted again.

Tehran effectively shut down the strait after the joint

U.S.-Israeli aerial bombing campaign on Iranbegan on February

28. Since then, traffic through the strait - a passage that

normally carries around a fifth of global oil and gas supplies -

has slowed to a trickle.

The immediate impact has been severe. Around 13 million barrels

per day (bpd) of oil supply and roughly 300 million cubic metres

per day of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been trapped inside

the Gulf, forcing producers to shut in oil fields, refineries

and LNG plants and battering economies from Asia to Europe.

The fighting has also caused lasting damage to energy

infrastructure - and diplomatic relationships - across the

region.

So how will a recovery play out, and when can the industry

reasonably expect to approach pre-war operating levels?

THE RELIEF RUSH

The pace of recovery will depend not just on diplomacy

between Washington and Tehran, but also on logistics, tanker

insurance availability, freight rates and the willingness of

shipowners to risk the passage.

The first tankers to leave the Middle East will be the

roughly 260 vessels already floating inside the Gulf, laden with

about 170 million barrels of oil and 1.2 million metric tons of

LNG, according to analytics firm Kpler.

Most of these initial cargoes are likely to be directed to

Asia, which normally takes about 80% of Gulf oil exports and 90%

of LNG shipments.

As these vessels exit, more than 300 empty tankers idling in

the Gulf of Oman will gradually move into the Gulf and head to

loading terminals such as Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura and Iraq's

Basrah Oil Terminal.

Their first task will be relieving onshore storage

facilities that filled rapidly during the Hormuz shutdown.

Commercial crude storage in the Gulf currently stands at about

262 million barrels, the equivalent of 20 days of disrupted

production, according to the International Energy Agency -

leaving little room for further production until exports resume.

But tanker logistics will still slow any full-scale

recovery of energy flows. A round trip from the Middle East to

India's west coast, for example, typically takes around 20 days.

Longer-haul routes to China, Japan and South Korea can take two

months or more.

And sourcing sufficient tankers may be challenging. Many

have been tied up shipping oil and LNG from the Americas to Asia

on voyages that can take up to 40 days.

A full rebalancing of the global tanker fleet and a return

of Gulf loading operations to pre-war rhythms will be uneven and

likely take at least eight to 12 weeks, even under benign

conditions.

CHICKEN-AND-EGG PROBLEM

As tanker loadings gradually resume, producers such as Saudi

Aramco and the United Arab Emirates' ADNOC will have

to restart oil and gas output at fields and refineries shuttered

during the fighting.

That will require careful coordination, including the return

of thousands of skilled workers and contractors who were

evacuated during the conflict. The pace of production recovery

will also be dictated by available storage at coastal terminals,

creating a feedback loop between shipping and upstream activity.

The IEA estimates that around half of Gulf oil and gas

fields retain sufficient reservoir pressure to return to pre-war

output within roughly two weeks. Another 30% could take up to

six weeks, assuming a stable security environment and the

restoration of disrupted supply chains.

The remaining 20% - equivalent to roughly 2.5 to 3 million

bpd - face far tougher technical challenges. Low reservoir

pressure, damaged equipment and power supply constraints mean

some fields will take months to recover.

Damage to major energy assets, including Qatar's giant Ras

Laffan LNG hub - where about 17% of capacity was hit - could

take up to five years to repair. Some ageing and complex wells,

particularly in Iraq and Kuwait, may never return to their

previous output levels.

Any persistent supply losses could eventually be offset by

drilling new wells across the region, but that process would

likely take at least a year and require a sustained improvement

in security conditions.

Once the tanker backlog clears and oilfields return to

steady output, Iraq and Kuwait will begin lifting force majeure

declarations - contractual clauses that allow exporters to

suspend deliveries during uncontrollable events such as war.

Even in the most optimistic scenario - peace talks succeed,

no new conflicts erupt and infrastructure damage proves no worse

than feared - a full return to pre-war operations looks unlikely

for years.

(The opinions expressed here are those of Ron Bousso, a

columnist for Reuters.)

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(Ron Bousso; Editing by Marguerita Choy)