(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Ron Bousso

LONDON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Venezuela is likely to retain

its seat in OPEC even if U.S. President Donald Trump

successfully forces a change of government in the oil-rich

country, as the U.S. is seeking to bolster its alliance with the

cartel even as it expands its own sphere of influence.

The U.S. has recently been increasing pressure on Venezuelan

President Nicolas Maduro to step down, building up a large

military presence in the Caribbean and carrying out strikes

against alleged drug-smuggling boats.

The Trump administration's new national security strategy makes

no secret of the White House's plans. It states that Washington

seeks to "restore American pre-eminence" in the Western

Hemisphere. In Venezuela, that almost certainly means pushing

for a government that will provide U.S. refiners and oil

producers access to the South American country's vast oil and

gas reserves.

This 21st-century Monroe Doctrine might suggest that the White

House will seek to remove Caracas from the grip of the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, given

America's longstanding hostility towards the oil cartel.

Congress has advanced in recent decades several bipartisan

versions of the NOPEC (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels)

bill that would enable antitrust lawsuits against state-owned

oil companies, though the initiatives were never voted into law.

And in 2018, Trump told the UN General Assembly that OPEC was

"ripping off the rest of the world."

But that is unlikely to be the case today. Trump has nurtured a

close economic and military partnership with Saudi Crown Prince

Mohammed bin Salman, as well as the neighbouring United Arab

Emirates. So the U.S. president would likely not pressure a new

Caracas government to cease being an OPEC member - especially if

it is one the U.S. might wield significant power over.

RESTORING PAST GLORY

Venezuela was among the five founding members of OPEC in 1960.

The country's importance within the group has nevertheless

diminished in recent decades due to declining oil output,

political instability and heavy U.S. sanctions.

Venezuela's production dwindled from a peak of 3.7 million

barrels per day (bpd) in 1970 to a low of 665,000 bpd in 2021

before slightly recovering to below 1 million bpd in 2024,

according to the Energy Institute's Statistical Review,

reflecting years of disrepair and lack of investment by

state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

But Venezuela has the world's largest proven crude oil

reserves, which reached around 303 billion barrels in 2023,

roughly 17% of global reserves, according to the U.S. Energy

Information Administration. Most of the reserves are located in

the Orinoco Belt region.

The U.S. has been closely intertwined with Venezuela's oil

industry ever since the South American country's first major oil

discoveries in the 1920s. That relationship continued as

Venezuela became the world's second-largest oil producer by the

1930s, with the country's vast resources attracting top Western

oil companies including Chevron ( CVX ), Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and

Shell.

This all changed, however, after Venezuela nationalised its

energy industry, first in the 1970s and again under President

Hugo Chavez in the 2000s. Chevron ( CVX ) is today the only U.S. oil

company operating in the heavily sanctioned country, thanks to a

U.S. waiver to sanctions imposed in 2019.

The removal of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela would likely lead

to a rapid return of U.S. and European companies. And, according

to estimates by Washington-based consultancy Rapidan Energy, the

country could probably ramp up its production by around 1

million bpd over 10 years under a stable, U.S.-aligned

government.

While plucking Venezuela out of OPEC might appear like the next

logical step in such a scenario, that does not appear to be

aligned with Trump's broader economic and geopolitical

interests.

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS

Trump has already established closer ties with OPEC - and its de

facto leader Saudi Arabia in particular - than many of his

predecessors.

OPEC proved beneficial to the first Trump administration during

the COVID-19 pandemic. A collapse in demand sent crude prices

plunging, leaving small U.S. shale drillers teetering on the

verge of bankruptcy, but OPEC successfully stabilized the market

by introducing record supply cuts to prop up prices.

More recently, when Trump returned to the White House in

January, one of his first actions was urging Saudi Arabia and

OPEC to boost production to help lower energy prices for U.S.

consumers. Riyadh appeared to acquiesce when OPEC and its allies

including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, moved to unwind

years of production cuts in April.

From OPEC's perspective, the desire to keep Venezuela within its

orbit will be intense, given the size of the country's potential

production and the apparent fractures already growing in the

cartel.

"President Trump prioritizes good relations with Riyadh and

Abu Dhabi. For those two co-founders of OPEC, keeping Venezuela

in OPEC is more important than it is for Trump," said Rapidan

Energy President Bob McNally.

Of course, much is still up in the air. It is unclear whether

Trump's high-stakes pressure campaign on Venezuela's leadership

will be successful. And even if it is, the form it takes

matters. A military intervention followed by a disorderly

transition could delay any revival of Venezuela's oil production

and potentially lead to pushback among the population.

But one thing is clear: Trump is unlikely to turn Venezuela's

65-year-old OPEC membership into a battleground.

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(Ron Bousso

Editing by Marguerita Choy)