08:58 AM EDT, 06/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Rosenberg Research said it fields questions all the time as to why it isn't bullish on the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie).

After all, the loonie has rallied nearly 6% off the nearby "trade-fear" lows of earlier this year -- but it is a facade, stated Rosenberg Research.

In reality, the Canadian dollar is among the weakest G-10 currencies this year outside of the US dollar (US), which has seen broad-based selling pressure given all the President Donald Trump-related policy uncertainty, it pointed out.

The reason why Rosenberg is less than enthused about the Canadian dollar is due to the fact that the United States unemployment rate sits at 4.2% and in Canada, it is now 7.0%. That +280 basis points gap is the widest since January 2021 and, before that, March 2020, and prior to that, March 2001.

This is more than +100bps wider than the historical norm going back to 1966. This portends more Bank of Canada easing as the Federal Reserve remains on hold, driving Canada-U.S. interest rate spreads further into negative terrain, so barring a commodity boom, this widening output gap differential and yield gap will ensure that the loonie remains what it has really been for many years -- a "flightless bird," according to Rosenberg.