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Poland shoots down drones with NATO support, first such

action

in war against Ukraine

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Airlines face increased costs, detours due to global

conflict

zones

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Airlines may revise risk assessments for flights over

Poland

By Lisa Barrington and Joanna Plucinska

SEOUL/FRANKFURT, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The incursion of

Russian drones in Poland has reignited safety concerns over the

vulnerability of civil air transport in Europe, aviation and

insurance experts said, the latest upheaval facing airlines from

escalating global conflict.

Early on Wednesday, Poland shot down drones in its airspace with

the backing of military aircraft from its NATO allies, the first

time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have

fired shots during Russia's war in Ukraine.

Warsaw Chopin and Modlin airports, as well as Rzeszow and

Lublin airports in the country's east, temporarily closed before

resuming operations.

Countries bordering on Ukraine have reported occasional

Russian missiles or drones entering their airspace since

Russia's 2022 invasion, but not on such a large scale, and they

are not known to have shot them down.

AIRLINES LEFT WITH FEWER OPTIONS, HIGHER COSTS

Proliferating conflict zones around the world have increased the

burden on airline operations and profitability, adding to safety

concerns and disrupting travel.

With airspace closures around Russia and Ukraine, throughout the

Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and in parts of Africa,

airlines are left with fewer route options.

Detours add to airlines' fuel costs and lengthen journey

times. Eurocontrol, a 41-nation coordination agency, has said

Ukraine's closed airspace has added to congestion in the

region's skies.

Since October 2023, many international carriers have

suspended flights to the region due to fears of missile and

drone interference.

Wednesday's drone incident followed Israel's attempt on Tuesday

to kill the political leaders of Hamas in the Qatari capital

Doha.

Worries about further disruption for the travel industry

pressured airline stocks. Shares in British Airways owner IAG

were down 4.1%, easyJet fell 2.2% to its

weakest since April, while Lufthansa and Ryanair

were both also 2.2% lower at the close of trade.

Flight disruptions were relatively limited because the drone

incursion happened early in the morning, before many airlines

had started flying.

Polish airline LOT redirected some flights to western Poland

and said it expected cancellations and delays.

A spokesperson for budget airline Wizz Air ( WZZAF ), which

operates in central and eastern Europe, said its security teams

"closely monitored" the situation and adjusted flight schedules

after airports closed.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency said no advisory

was needed for the drone incursion due to its temporary nature,

adding that Poland's aviation authorities were able to

sufficiently handle the incident.

AIRLINES, INSURERS EYE RISKS

Aviation analysts say airlines are increasingly wary of the

risks posed by incursions into civilian flight zones.

"This is a wake-up call, I think, for everyone in Europe

that can expect this more often," said Eric Schouten, head of

security consultancy Dyami.

Two senior aviation insurance market sources said the market

was watching events in Poland and Qatar closely.

If the market got a sense either that Russian drone

incursions into Polish airspace were becoming consistent and

deliberate, or that Israeli airstrikes in the Middle East were

likely to continue, it would pose serious questions for

insurers, one source added.

LOT, Lufthansa, Ryanair, and airBaltic did not immediately

respond to requests for comment.

Poland's civil aviation authority and air navigation service

did not respond to a request for comment on additional measures

taken to ensure airspace safety.

WORST-CASE SCENARIO

Following the drone incident, airlines may review their risk

assessments in Poland, said Matthew Borie, chief intelligence

officer at aviation risk consultancy Osprey Flight Solutions.

They may consider flying further west in Poland away from

the Russian, Ukrainian, and Belarusian borders, operating during

daylight hours and carrying extra fuel to cope with potential

diversions, he said, similar to steps taken in the Middle East.

The worst-case scenario for airlines flying near a conflict zone

is a plane being struck - either accidentally or deliberately -

by weaponry.

Since 2001, six commercial planes have been unintentionally

shot down, with three additional close calls, according to

Osprey.

In one such incident, in December, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight

crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. The plane was

accidentally shot down by Russian air defences, according to

Azerbaijan's president and Reuters sources.

In 2020, a Ukrainian passenger plane was mistakenly targeted

and destroyed by Iranian air defence operators.

"If this happens more often, you really have to understand

what's happening ... What might go wrong? I'm always saying,

misidentification is your biggest risk," Schouten added.