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Group working on complex deal for 2024-2025, sources say
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Kazakhstan's minister travelling to Riyadh, adviser says
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OPEC+ still officially schedules meeting as online
gathering
(Adds details, quotes from source and analysts, from paragraph
3)
By Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova and Maha El Dahan
LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has invited
OPEC+ oil ministers to Riyadh to hold their June 2 policy
meeting to discuss a complex deal that may extend deep oil
production cuts into 2025, sources from the producer group told
Reuters on Friday.
Kazakhstan's energy minister Almasadam Satkaliev will travel
to Riyadh, Shyngys Ilyasov, an adviser to the minister, told
Reuters by phone. The adviser did not say how many other OPEC+
ministers would attend.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries led by
Saudi Arabia and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, has
made a series of output cuts since late 2022 amid rising
production from the United States and other non-members.
OPEC+ is currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million
barrels per day, equal to about 5.7% of global demand.
The cuts include 3.66 million bpd by OPEC+ members valid
through to the end of 2024, and 2.2 million bpd of additional
voluntary cuts by some members which expire at the end of June.
A deal on Sunday could include extending some or all of the
cuts of 3.66 million bpd into 2025 and some or all of the
voluntary cuts into the third or fourth quarter of 2024, three
sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said on Thursday.
Another source, an OPEC+ delegate, when asked on Friday if
Sunday's meeting would make decisions on 2025, said: "Part of
it, yes."
The extension of some cuts into next year will likely be
made conditional on OPEC+ agreeing new individual member output
capacity figures later in 2024, two of the sources said.
Oil prices have risen this year but concern about demand and
the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates in major
economies has weighed. Brent, the global benchmark,
traded below $82 a barrel on Friday, down from a six-month high
of $92.18 in April.
SERIES OF MEETINGS
Not all ministers are expected to travel to Riyadh for
Sunday's meeting, which is still officially scheduled as an
online gathering. A series of meetings is expected to begin at
1000 GMT on Sunday.
The invitation to the Saudi capital is the second change of
plan. OPEC+ originally planned to convene at OPEC's Vienna
headquarters but shifted the meeting online.
OPEC+ is trying to agree new oil production capacity for its
member countries by the end of 2024, an issue that has created
tension in the past because each nation's output target is
calculated based on its notional capacity.
"If the cuts are indeed extended into 2025 that will also
raise the issue of the group's planned capacity audit and
baseline reset, which likely won't be settled until later this
year," said Rory Johnston, founder of oil research service
Commodity Context.
The countries which have made voluntary cuts are Algeria,
Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates.
"We would not entirely rule out a plot twist - in the form
of a deeper cut - given Prince Abdulaziz's penchant for
Hollywood twist endings," said Helima Croft from RBC Capital
Markets.
Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has
repeatedly said he likes keeping the oil market on its toes and
has promised to punish speculators.
The OPEC+ meeting coincides with Saudi Arabia's sale of a
new stake in state oil giant Aramco that could raise
as much as $13.1 billion to help fund Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman's plan to diversify the economy.