By Maha El Dahan, Hadeel Al Sayegh and Yousef Saba
DUBAI, May 31 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and its bankers
will on Sunday morning start taking orders for as much as $13.1
billion worth of shares in its energy giant Aramco, in
a major test of international investor interest in its market.
In a long-anticipated announcement on Thursday, the kingdom
and Aramco detailed plans to sell up to a 0.7% in the
state-controlled oil company, with 10% of the offering reserved
for retail investors, based on demand. Order-taking will run
through June 6 and the deal will price on June 7.
The offering - codenamed Project Bond according to sources -
has been trailed for months as a key step in diversifying the
company's investor base since its record-breaking initial public
offering (IPO) in 2019, as well as for its potential to further
fuel the kingdom's massive economic diversification programme.
It also marks a test of interest in Saudi markets after
lukewarm interest from international investors in the 2019
flotation amid concerns about a high valuation, Saudi government
control and the energy transition away from hydrocarbons.
International investors have been similarly reticent about
the kingdom's mega-projects, from beach resorts to new cities.
Investors buying into Aramco will need to weigh
environmental concerns against its rich payouts.
"Since the IPO, higher expectations on dividend payout and
oil price have outweighed lower expectations on output," said
Hasnain Malik, head of equity research, at Dubai-based Tellimer.
"That improvement in the cash flow available for
shareholders may not be enough to entice those foreign investors
that did not participate in the IPO because of environmental
concern on fossil fuels or governance concern on the priorities
of the dominant sovereign shareholder."
When asked about whether there had been any interest from
so-called anchor investors to take a major chunk of the
offering, Aramco Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed gave
little away.
He noted the shares are on sale above the IPO price - within
a range of 26.7 riyals ($7.12) to 29 riyals, after they closed
at 29.1 riyals on Thursday, valuing the company at $1.87
trillion. Aramco's IPO valued it at $1.7 trillion.
The sale comes as stock offerings globally have reached
$247.4 billion in the year to date, the highest level since
2021, according to Dealogic data. It will be one of the biggest
share sales in the last decade.
'SELF-FUNDING'
Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, known as MbS, has poured hundreds of billions of dollars
through the kingdom's sovereign Public Investment Fund (PIF)
into massive projects, and everything from electric vehicles to
sports and a new airline, to diversify the economy away from
hydrocarbons and create jobs.
Selling Aramco shares is "not the only way to fund (MbS')
Vision 2030, but it's one of the easier options now that it's
clear foreign investors aren't interested in buying stakes in
Saudi gigaprojects," said Jim Krane Research fellow, Rice
University's Baker Institute Houston.
"The Saudis have not been able to attract enough foreign
investment to cover much of the cost of building the Vision 2030
gigaprojects, like the massive beach resorts and futuristic
cities. It's not for lack of trying."
Krane expects most of the buyers of the offering will be
Saudis. "So, it's an indirect form of self-funding by Saudi
investors who receive shares of Saudi Aramco instead of a piece
of Neom or the New Murabba," he said, referring to two of the
mammoth projects being spearheaded by the PIF.
Selling on the Saudi Exchange also offers lighter regulatory
and transparency requirements, he added.
The kingdom is supported by a familiar phalanx of advisers,
as for the Aramco IPO. Wall Street dealmaker Michael Klein's
firm Klein & Co and U.S. boutique firm Moelis & Co ( MC ) are acting as
independent advisers on the deal, according to a filing with the
Saudi Exchange Thursday.
Saudi National Bank's investment banking arm SNB Capital is
acting as lead manager in addition to its role as joint global
coordinator alongside Morgan Stanley ( MS ), Citi, Goldman Sachs ( GS ), HSBC,
Bank of America and JPMorgan ( JPM ).
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told reporters the sale was an
opportunity for current and new investors to build a sizeable
position in the company, and for Aramco to broaden its
shareholder base and boost the liquidity of its shares.
($1 = 3.7506 riyals)