07:46 AM EST, 11/14/2024 (MT Newswires) -- On Oct. 24, Canada's government announced sweeping new immigration measures, encompassing both the permanent and non-permanent streams, noted Scotiabank.

The measures reflect a government doubling down on its efforts to reach its non-permanent resident target of 5% of the total population by the end of 2026, but serious questions remain, said the ban.

A Scotiabank previous report questioned whether the 5% target in the remaining timeframe was realistic anymore. Even with aggressive new measures, administrative limitations and barriers could leave population growth higher than what the government forecasted in its announcement.

Meanwhile, Canada's solid population growth continues to march upward albeit more slowly, while the effect of earlier measures may start to have an impact soon, pointed out the bank.

Although 15-year-old-over population growth recorded another month of over 3% seasonally adjusted annual rate, as per Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, it also constituted the lowest monthly growth figure of the year, narrowly lower than the 3.07% recorded in February.

The 2024 temporary permit issuances are now lower across the board versus last year -- by double digits in some cases -- which will translate to a slowdown in new arrivals over time, which is the result of measures put in place earlier this year, added Scotiabank.

These data points are broadly in line with the bank's best-guess population growth in the order of 2.9% this year -- given how late in the year these most recent announcements have come, coupled with the time it has taken to see the effect of previous restriction announcements -- and 0.9% in 2025.

As the largest share of newly issued temporary work permits, the International Mobility Program will be the stream to watch in 2025. The federal government's ability to both stick to intake targets for this stream, as well as transitioning some to permanent resident status, while declining visa renewals to others, will be a major component of whether or not future population growth figures will be met, according to Scotiabank.