07:12 AM EDT, 05/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his entourage will trudge down to Washington D.C. to meet with United States President Donald Trump and his own entourage, said Scotiabank.

The risks may be high and mostly in terms of Trump's penchant for stirring unpredictable chaos, stated the bank. Trump's election day social media post sounds as belligerent as ever toward Canada.

To Scotiabank, it feels premature to be holding this meeting at such a high level unless they have significant confidence that work being done in the background by bureaucrats and technocrats have been making serious, largely undisclosed progress outside of the recent news that Canadian auto parts companies get a two-year pause on tariffs.

That step, by the way, should be viewed "cautiously" as the bank asks if Trump is merely pushing off another fight until after the midterms of November 2026.

Nevertheless, the Carney administration is quickly lining up its ducks, noted the bank. The plan is to announce a new cabinet on May 12, and Carney didn't commit to retaining Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne.

Parliament will be recalled on May 26 with King Charles III and Queen Camilla in attendance amid some domestic questioning over what this says about independence. Ottawa will be taken over by all manner of pomp and pageantry. The king will deliver the Speech from the Throne the next day which will outline general goals of the Carney Administration, and the rest of the king's itinerary for his visit to Canada will be disclosed at a later date.

Investors probably know enough about the goals that will be outlined in the Speech already, given the Liberal platform and Carney's reinforcement of the main messages this past week.

By July 1, Carney has pledged a 1% tax cut for the lowest income tax bracket that will heavily favor lower-income earners.

A June timeline for a full federal Budget seems to be in the cards, according to Scotiabank. It would have to be passed by parliament, which sits between May 26 and June 20 and doesn't return until Sept. 15. That limited window faces high uncertainty around getting key fiscal initiatives and perhaps any possible trade deal passed in time.