09:25 AM EST, 11/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada will deliver a welcome update of what it thinks about the country's mortgage market and its Summary of Deliberations in the lead-up to the 50bps cut on Oct. 23, noted Scotiabank.

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks on Wednesday, although when everyone might want to know what she thinks about the impact of the United States presidential election on Canada, said the bank. There will be a text at 12:25 p.m. ET Tuesday, a question-and-answer session but no presser.

Scotiabank expects Rogers to say that Canada is adapting well to rate resets but there is still further adjustment on the fixed rate side ahead. Delinquency rates remain very low, as do consumer bankruptcies while the rise in workout proposals has driven higher insolvencies. Banks' provisions for mortgage loan losses as a share of the mortgage book have merely mean-reverted toward historical averages from nothing when mortgage rates were "dirt cheap" in the pandemic.

All of which is something markets generally understand better than other forums, especially upon considering the other unique features of Canada's mortgage market, stated the bank. Part of the reason for this and other measures of housing-related spreads is that supply remains tight.

Industry-wide growth in total residential mortgages outstanding remains toward multi-decade lows.

Rogers is likely to avoid commenting on the macroeconomic effects of the US election -- assuming markets know the results when she speaks -- and to instead emphasize Canada's relative strengths into potential turmoil.

After a deluge of BoC communications including the ones on game day, a fireside chat, and two rounds of parliamentary testimony it's pretty unlikely that investors will learn anything new in Tuesday's Summary of Deliberations, added Scotiabank. One thing to watch for may be a discussion around the merits of cutting by 25bps or 50bps at that meeting.