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Scotiabank Previews Friday's GDP Data in Canada
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Scotiabank Previews Friday's GDP Data in Canada
Nov 29, 2024 5:38 AM

08:03 AM EST, 11/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada delivers a slew of gross domestic product figures at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, noted Scotiabank.

The bank estimated Q3 GDP growth of about 0.8% quarter over quarter at a seasonally adjusted and annualized

rate (SAAR). Using monthly production-side GDP indicates Q3 growth of about 0.7% quarter-over-quarter SAAR.

Statistics Canada provided a flash estimate for September's GDP growth rate of 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted at the end of October. Scotiabank thinks the flash estimate might be too high and ut went with growth of just 0.1% month over month.

Investors will get StatsCan's preliminary estimate for October GDP on Friday with no details. Light data to date leans toward a decent reading.

The Bank of Canada will make its policy statement on Dec. 11. Scotiabank believes it would take a big miss for Friday's data to matter relative to expectations for a quarter-point cut in light of the recently warm core inflation readings, the government's fiscal and mortgage rules stimulus, provincial government stimulus measures, and elevated United States policy uncertainty, particularly on tariffs and what may be Canada's response.

The January Monetary Policy Report -- post President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration and threatened tariff announcement -- carries much more risk to the BoC outlook than anything in the very near term, added Scotiabank.

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