08:07 AM EDT, 07/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for June at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, noted Scotiabank.

Canadian population growth is expected to keep filling job vacancies that remain above pre-pandemic levels, said the bank. The youth category drove much of the prior month's employment gain and could require the over-25-year-old population to step up this time.

Wage growth may slip after hitting +8.4% m/m seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in May. Scotiabank expects the unemployment rate to keep rising as the labor force continues to grow more rapidly than employment thanks to strong population growth fed by higher immigration. The bank will also watch hours worked for the full quarter as a Q2 GDP guide.

The range of consensus estimates is the tightest Scotiabank has seen in a long time which is surprising. Everyone is in a 20,000-30,000 m/m range. Surprising because the 95% confidence interval on the change in employment is more or less 57,000 which offers plenty of room for dispersion within the noise bands for this modest sample household survey.