08:05 AM EST, 03/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for February at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, noted Scotiabank.

After big numbers in December (up 91,000) and January (up 76,000), the historical odds favor another gain, said the bank. The issue is whether history will stack up well against United States tariffs and the expiration of the GST/HST tax cut.

Scotiabank expects February's job gains to be 20,000 and the unemployment rate to increase to 6.7% from 6.6% in January.

Historical odds favor another gain is sample stickiness, stated Scotiabank. Statistics Canada uses a sample rotation approach to sampling jobs in 'primary sampling units' by sampling the same local areas for six months at a time and rotating in new ones one month at a time while dropping the first month's sample out.

That means most of the sample is repeatedly drawn from pretty much the same areas, with the same regional concentrations of employers and industries. The sample turns slowly over time and isn't a random sample.

A downside is the seasonally-adjusted factor that has been among the lowest in recent years compared with like months of February in history, pointed out the bank. That's because of the recency bias in how they are calculated.

The GST/HST cut may support retail employment into the February LFS reference week when the cut expired. Next month's report for March may be a different story.

Scotiabank suspects hours worked are due for a retreat after explosive back-to-back gains and that might be a dampener on February gross domestic product expectations.

Wage growth has been cooling on a recent trend basis, added the bank. Another weak number could add to disinflationary wage pressures as opposed to sticky core inflation readings, but a rebound probably wouldn't change the multi-month trend.