08:00 AM EST, 12/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will update the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for November at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, noted Scotiabank.

The bank went with 20,000 job gains, while the median is 25,000, and an unemployment rate of 6.4%

Friday's data might seal the deal on whether the Bank of Canada goes with a 25bps or 50bps rate cut at Wednesday's policy meeting, stated Scotiabank.

The bank argues that tightened immigration announcements over last summer and into October will have more of an impact on the labor force than employment because the temps who are most likely to leave are the ones who are unemployed -- for example, unequal effects on jobs versus labor force.

Also, after wage growth soared by 7.9% month-over-month seasonally adjusted annular rate (SAAR) in October for the biggest gain since May, Scotiabank wouldn't be surprised to see mean reversion kick in this time and drive a "significant" deceleration.

It's about a 50-50 split within the 'big six' Canadian banks over whether the BoC goes 25 or 50 next week and several are saying they want to see the jobs numbers before finalizing, added Scotiabank.

You could give a narrative in either direction with what is known to date, but one that leans slightly more toward 25bps. It might just boil down to what the easy thing to do could be for the BoC in terms of market pricing post-jobs as crazy as that sounds, according to the bank.