08:10 AM EDT, 03/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release retail sales for January and preliminary figures for February Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, said Scotiabank.

Statistics Canada had previously guided back on Feb. 20 that January retail sales were estimated to be up by 1.5% month over month in nominal terms. Part of that gain is likely to be autos, noted the bank. Key will be volumes and breadth.

The other key will be the advance guidance StatsCan will provide for sales in February with no details, for which Scotiabank expects some moderation from the prior month.

That said, because of the way Q1 started with a strong gain in January, Canada could be looking at a solid quarter-over-quarter annualized gain in retail sales volumes that represent around 40% of consumer spending to help inform Q1 growth tracking, stated the bank. Tracking will be updated after the data.

Weather and a bad flu season might dampen the way the quarter ends, but that in turn could provide room for another math-driven gain in Q2.

Canada also updates February readings for industrial (IPPI) and raw materials (RMPI) prices at 8:30 a.m. ET, Friday. They've been on a sharp upswing of late, which informs debate over pass-through into consumer prices, given lagging historical correlations, added Scotiabank.

As a consequence, inflation risk remains pointed higher, according to the bank. It will pay particular attention to core industrial prices excluding energy that jumped 2.8% month over month in January.

This has been part of an upswing since the start of 2024 that is showing no signs of abating. Core industrial product prices have risen by about 15% since then.