07:14 AM EDT, 08/05/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada refreshes trade figures for June on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET with possible prior revisions that will help to further inform tracking of Q2 gross domestic product growth, said Scotiabank.

At present, exports are tracking a steep drop of over 30% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q2 after a pair of quarters of about 10% growth and with imports tracking a smaller 10% decline after about 6%-9% gains in the prior two quarters, noted the bank.

Because imports are a leakage from GDP, the drop in imports in Q2 after tariff stockpiling will lessen the net trade drag on Q2 GDP, stated Scotiabank.

The import figures will also give an updated sense of how investment performance is tracking, since most capital goods purchased by Canadian companies are imported. The volume of imported capital goods is tracking a drop of about 28% quarter-over-quarter SAAR in Q2 after surging by 29% in Q1.

The bank will need to see if investment weakness is merely the unwinding of tariff front-running.