07:22 AM EDT, 04/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's gross domestic product for the months of February and March will be refreshed on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, but the figures may be of little consequence given forward-looking concerns, said Scotiabank.

February GDP will be a revision to the initial guidance provided by Statistics Canada back on March 28 that it was "essentially unchanged." The bank went with an estimate of 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted (SA) decline and wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker number.

A simple regression model against several activity readings for the month of March suggests a decline of 0.3% but it's probably best to be relatively conservative in light of data gaps and StatsCan guidance about February: "Increases in the manufacturing and finance and insurance sectors were offset by decreases in the real estate and rental and leasing sector, the oil and gas extraction subsector and the retail trade sector."

As for March, little change is expected with a slight nod toward a small gain based on a rise in hours worked and limited other readings, stated Scotiabank.

If those expectations are on the mark, then StatsCan guidance on Q1 using the monthly GDP production-side accounts could be in the vicinity of 1.5% growth at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR), pointed out the bank. Converting that to the more commonly followed expenditure-based accounts could be more difficult this time given that is more influenced by trade and inventory swings that are likely to intensify around the end of Q1 and into Q2 given trade wars.

The shame of it all, however, is that the economy was looking to be on the mend before trade wars and Scotiabank's narrative of a rebound led by consumption was doing very well. GDP grew by 1.8% in Q1 of last year, then 2.8%, then 2.2%, and then 2.6% in Q4, plus modest growth in Q1.

Consumption had been doing "very, very well" with a gain of 3.6% uarter-over-quarter SAAR in Q1 last year, then only 1%, then 4.2% in Q3 and 5.6% in Q4 all on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis. Goods retailers -- particularly of lower-end merchandise -- fared less well than the service-oriented companies that benefited from the rotation of spending toward everything that isn't included in retail sales, like tickets to concerts, movies, and sporting events, or spending at restaurants, bars, hotels, and on airlines and financial services.

Going forward, Scotiabank expects Canadian GDP growth to slow to within the zero to 1% quarter-over-quarter SAAR range in each of Q2 through Q4 of this year as the effects of elevated uncertainty and both the direct and indirect effects of tariffs take root.