07:57 AM EDT, 06/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada will be the main focus on Wednesday, said Scotiabank.

The statement and Governor Tiff Macklem's opening remarks to his press conference arrive at 9:45 a.m. ET. The press conference begins at 10:30 a.m. ET and it can be watched on the BoC's website.

A hold is priced with just around 5bps of a cut baked in, pointed out the bank.

You could argue that risk-reward favors positioning for a cut, stated Scotiabank. "You could also argue that doing so would be largely on a lark and if you want to bet such money, then do it with your own funds."

The BoC has a "tendency and willingness" to surprise, but Scotiabank added it would have serious problems with this central bank if it went ahead with a cut absent any evidence it has licked inflation to date and with forward-looking uncertainties surrounding the outlook for inflation risk.

Consensus expects a hold. All of the 'big six' domestic banks now expect a hold with the other five very recently joining Scotia's call, which has been in place for this meeting all year long.

Wednesday is a statement-only affair with published remarks from the governor and accompanying Q&A in the press conference. The next Monetary Policy Reports is due at the July 30 meeting.