09:01 AM EST, 01/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada continues to benefit from a relatively low effective tariff rate on exports to the United States, said Scotiabank.

The bank estimates this effective tariff rate at 6.3%, based on pre-tariff trade flow, thanks to most of Canada's trade continuing on a free-trade basis under the CUSMA trade deal. The best estimate of the average actual duty paid on U.S. imports from Canada seems to have settled just below 4%, though this may be somewhat underestimating the true duties paid, as it doesn't include all trade-related levies.

With the U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs as soon as Friday, there could be renewed turbulence in the ongoing U.S. global trade war in the coming weeks, stated Scotiabank.

If these tariffs are struck down, these could be replaced under a new mechanism -- which would likely again be challenged, leading to renewed uncertainty, added the bank.

For Canada, the sectoral tariffs are by far the most impactful and will continue to weigh on the Canadian economy as long as they remain in place, according to Scotiabank.