07:08 AM EST, 02/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Published December data for Canada recorded year-to-date permanent resident admissions at 483,395, just under the annual target of 485,000, or at 99.7%, said Scotiabank.

Attention now turns to the 2025 target of 395,000, with an emphasis on federal and provincial economic nominees, noted the bank.

Temporary visa issuances among major streams saw a material decline versus 2023, a clear sign that federal immigration restrictions are taking effect, with study permit issuances in the entirety of 2024 experiencing a large decline compared to the prior year, stated Scotiabank.

However, it will take a lot more than large declines in study permit issuances to reach the temporary resident-to-population share goal of 5% by the end of 2026, pointed out the bank.

With a share of those who have received visas in 2024 yet to arrive, coupled with the administrative and legislative barriers involved in how quickly the government could facilitate temporary resident exits, continue to make the notion of the federal government's aim of stalling population growth in 2025 "highly unlikely," according to Scotiabank.

The population growth of those over 15 years old was 2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted annual rate in January casting further doubts on that target, it added.

Additional scrutiny will be focused on the government's ability to adhere to its temporary resident targets, particularly those arriving under the International Mobility Program -- by far the largest source of new work visa issuances in 2024. Looming federal elections render that path ahead all the more uncertain, said the bank.