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Second-Quarter Box Office Outperformance to Drive Full-Year Upside, Wedbush Says
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Second-Quarter Box Office Outperformance to Drive Full-Year Upside, Wedbush Says
May 28, 2025 11:48 AM

02:30 PM EDT, 05/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- North American box office revenue this year could exceed expectations as second-quarter ticket sales are tracking higher than projected, Wedbush Securities said in a Wednesday client note.

Full-year box office collections could increase 11% from 2024 levels to $9.5 billion, up from $9.1 billion previously expected, Wedbush analysts including Alicia Reese said. Movies including Warner Bros. Discovery's ( WBD ) "A Minecraft Movie," "Sinners," and "Final Destination: Bloodlines" outperformed the brokerage's expectations.

Ticket sales in the second quarter have jumped 91% year on year so far, Reese said. That's well ahead of the brokerage's 25% growth forecast.

Walt Disney's ( DIS ) "Lilo & Stitch" live-action remake powered the US box office to a record high over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, B. Riley Securities said in a Tuesday note.

"While (the second quarter) performance to-date bodes well for the balance of the year, we don't want to get over our skis," Reese wrote Wednesday.

Movie-theater attendance took a sharp hit during the COVID-19 pandemic and was also dented by Hollywood writers and actors strikes in 2023 that delayed production.

Outperform-rated Imax ( IMAX ) remains a "top pick" for Wedbush and is expected to further grow its market share, Reese said.

Cinemark (CNK) and AMC Entertainment ( AMC ) , meanwhile, "have begun to rebound and should see a nice lift to estimates if box office continues to track positively," according to Reese. Both stocks are rated neutral by Wedbush.

"We note the near-term overhang from AMC's upcoming debt repayment and/or restructuring, as well as a possible share issuance," the analyst said. "In contrast, Cinemark's upcoming convertible note expiration is likely to ease concerns and create space for a dividend increase."

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