MOSCOW, Aug 15 (Reuters) - In Russia, there appears to
be a new rule: Don't mention the war in relation to the rouble.
Russian media and analysts in state-controlled banks have
stayed largely silent on a possible link between the 9% fall of
the rouble against the U.S. dollar and Ukraine's surprise attack
on the Kursk region.
The rouble's slide started on Aug. 6, the first day
of the attack - the biggest by a foreign power on Russian
sovereign territory since World War Two.
Currency traders who spoke to Reuters on condition of
anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation said that
foreign banks were the main sellers of the Russian currency.
The rouble touched a 10-month low against the dollar and the
lowest level against the yuan since June 24 in the Aug. 13
session. State banks mostly attributed the fall to economic
factors.
Analysts at state-owned Sberbank, by far Russia's biggest
bank, blamed U.S. sanctions against Moscow's Stock Exchange,
imposed on June 12, and reduced currency sales by exporters.
"Exporters may have reduced the volumes of currency sales in
recent days. This is due to the fact that the requirements for
mandatory currency sales have become more lenient, and the tax
and dividend periods have ended," Sberbank said in a note.
FINANCIAL SHIELD
The Russian central bank has remained silent on the rouble's
fall. The Russian government did not respond to a request for
comment.
Leading Russian business media reported on the rouble's fall
- but did not link it to the Kursk attack.
Analysts quoted by the RBC business news portal attributed
the fall to shrinking exports and reduced requirements for forex
sales by exporters.
The news was also absent from main Russian state television
news and talk shows, as well as from the websites of state media
outlets.
The refrain from linking the rouble's fall to the events
unfolding just 530 km (330 miles) southwest of Moscow
illustrates a push within Russia to prevent bad economic news
from reaching the wider public.
Russia has sought to present the $2.0 trillion economy as an
increasingly invincible stronghold of self-sufficiency standing
up to the massive pressure of the West's sanctions, the most
punitive ever imposed on a major economy.
"Our finances are strong," Finance Minister Anton Siluanov
said in a speech on Wednesday.
"It is important for us to build this financial shield so
that all the financial pressures that anyone wants to exert on
us are deflected... This is exactly what is happening now,"
Siluanov said.
One trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity, suggested
that the intense rouble sales in recent days could also be
linked to an upcoming stoppage of overseas money transfers by
Austria's Raiffeisen Bank.
As the rouble started to rebound on Wednesday, some analysts
tried to dismiss any linkage between the attack and the rouble's
fall, while others predicted that it would soon stabilize.
Linking the currency decline to the Kursk incursion, said
economist Mikhail Belyaev, represented an approach that "in my
opinion... has no relation to reality".