NEW YORK, July 23 (Reuters) - U.S. small-cap stocks'
long-awaited rally has ignited record trading in options
contracts that would benefit from their persistent strength,
though some strategists say further gains could be limited.
The small-company focused Russell 2000 is up 9% over
the last 10 sessions while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has
slipped 3% over that period in a market rotation fueled by
expectations of interest rate cuts and the improved fortunes of
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
The small-cap rally has been accompanied by a rush into
bullish options. A record 1.35 million call options on iShares
Russell 2000 ETF changed hands daily over the last 10
days, Trade Alert data showed.
The trade has faltered more recently as tech stocks came
roaring back on Monday, and some analysts believe small stocks
may struggle to make further headway after this month's
explosive rally.
Similar rotations have not had much traction the last couple
of years, said Joe Mazzola, director of trading and education at
Charles Schwab.
The Russell 2000's one-week percentage gain outstripped that
of the Nasdaq 100 by at least 5 percentage points only three
times over the last two years. In each instance the tech index
soon regained the advantage, a Reuters analysis showed.
In the most recent example in late 2023, the Russell
2000 climbed 22% from November through December on expectations
of rate cuts, but struggled to advance further when the cuts did
not materialize.
The fundamental macro picture does not point to a sustained
rally and the ongoing earnings season may be a litmus test,
Barclays derivatives strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Some investors see small caps as a market sector that could
benefit from lower interest rates. Trump's political agenda,
with tariffs on imports and lower taxes, is also broadly viewed
as friendly to smaller companies.
Megacaps Tesla and Alphabet are set to
report earnings later on Tuesday, with positive results having
the potential to sooth investor nerves and reignite the tech
rally.