07:02 AM EDT, 07/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% on Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET, delivering a third successive status quo, said Societe Generale.

Money markets price in a status but haven't given up one further cut before year-end, wrote the bank in a note to clients.

Headline inflation was subdued at 1.9% year over year in June and has remained below the 2% mid-point of the 1%-3% target for three straight months, while the core rate was at or above 3%.

Further policy easing isn't ruled out however, given the fractious trade negotiations with the United States, stated SocGen. The BoC business outlook for future sales collapsed to six points in Q2 from 13 in Q1 and the overall business outlook survey worsened to -2.4 points in Q2 from -2.1 points in Q1.

The slack in the economy and tariff hostilities justify the pricing of at least one more rate cut this year to 2.50%, added the bank. The bottom end of the neutral range is 2.25%.

Dollar buy-backs returned USD/CAD to the upper end of the two-month range near 1.38. An acceleration back towards 1.40 (200dma 1.4045) is still a long shot but cannot be ruled out if U.S. trade negotiations take a turn for the worse and additional Federal Reserve easing is taken out of the equation, according to SocGen.