08:25 AM EDT, 06/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- So far, the market reaction to the weekend strikes undertaken by the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities has been relatively "muted," said Societe Generale.

The US dollar (USD) is a little stronger, with the Swiss franc (CHF) the only G10 currency up against it -- and the Israeli shekel (ILS) is the top currency over the weekend, wrote the bank in a note to clients. The yen (JPY) is the biggest loser, with South Korea's KRW, Australia's AUD, New Zealand's NZD also softer.

Oil prices are up 0.3%, drifting back down after an initial spike. Equities are mixed, but U.S. futures are higher, and bond yields are, on average, slightly higher.

SocGen doesn't have the most up-to-date short-term speculative positioning data, but the chart plots CFTC data for 4our currencies against the USD, as a share of open interest. AUD and Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) are still significant shorts, while the euro (EUR) and JPY are significant longs.

The JPY is comfortably the G10 currency that is most vulnerable to short-term nerves, stated the bank: Too many longs, too reliant on imported oil. China is the world's biggest consumer of oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz, but Japan is a little more reliant -- nearly 50% of its oil imports come through the Strait.

China may be important as a potential negotiator against closing the Strait, but Japan strikes SocGen as having more to lose economically and given foreign exchange positioning, that leaves those JPY longs looking exposed and both AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY have upside from here, along with USD/JPY.

In the last few weeks, foreign exchange markets have bene getting more sensitive to economic data, but that might be out of the window now, added the bank. PMIs are on show Monday and neither JPY, nor AUD got any help from stronger data.

German PMI data were better than expected, but is anyone watching, asked SocGen. The bank will be watching U.S. PMI and existing home sales on Monday, but not with any expectation they will affect the US dollar.

Mostly, the bank will be waiting for any communications from Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei, or any other indications of retaliation.

Overall, though, markets have a muted reaction, with the USD and CHF benefiting. JPY and KRW are suffering the most.