LA RODA DE ANDALUCIA, Spain (Reuters) -Spain's black olive exporters, subject to harsh tariffs since U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, are warning it will be difficult to survive an extra 15% they now face under the European Union's latest trade deal with the United States.

EU goods now face import tariffs of 15% - half of Trump's threatened rate, but much more than Europeans had hoped for - after striking a trade deal with Trump on Sunday. 

Spain, the world's top table olive exporter, has seen its share of the U.S. black olive market plummet from 49% in 2017 to 19% in 2024 after Trump imposed tariffs of more than 30% at the request of Californian olive growers. 

The measures only affected black olives and don't apply to green olives, olive oil or semi-processed olives.

Spanish farmers have taken steps to increase green olive sales and to diversify their markets since the tariffs were first imposed, but warn the additional increase will be hard to swallow.

"It would be unviable (for black table olives)," said Eduardo Martin, secretary of Asaja, a Spanish local farmers' association in southern Seville province, a region that produces the most olives. 

The initial trade measures coincided with a severe drought that forced Spanish producers to cut around 400,000 work shifts for pickers out of a total of 2.5 million, according to industry estimates. Sales of Spanish black olives to the U.S. dropped by 70% in the first year. 

"The worst was the first year," said Gabriel Cabello, president of Andalusia's Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives in Seville province. "In the second year, we learned that this was here to stay and that we had to do things differently."

To mitigate losses, Spanish exporters shifted focus to Europe and the Middle East, regions with a tradition of consuming table olives. They also ventured into Asian markets, while switching to shipping more green olives to the U.S. because they are subject to lower tariffs.

Tariffs also spurred innovation, with some Spanish exporters selling black olives stuffed with salmon or cheese for the first time, which helped boost sales in Europe and Asia, Cabello said.

Still, the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture estimates it has lost 239.6 million euros ($278.51 million) in black olive sales since the tariffs were introduced, nearly a third of the 707 million-euro total export value from the last harvest.

WEATHERED THE STORM

Among the 25 Spanish exporters active before the tariffs, only four major players remain, according to Asemesa, Spain's Association of Table Olive Exporters. 

Agro Sevilla, one of the larger players with the financial resources to lobby the U.S. for lower rates, expanded green olive exports and managed to reduce black olive tariffs to 10% from 31%. The company successfully demonstrated that they received fewer European subsidies than the U.S. had estimated. Its U.S. sales have been gradually growing since 2023.

"We cannot give up on the world's largest consumer market for black olives," said Agro Sevilla CEO Julio Roda.

In a twist, Aceitunas Guadalquivir, another major Spanish olive producer, acquired Bell-Carter Foods, one of the two leading U.S. companies that had advocated for the tariffs, according to a statement issued in 2022.

The company is among several Californian companies that have imported raw olives from Spain, which are exempt from the tariffs, according to Asemesa. 

Aceitunas Guadalquivir did not reply to a Reuters request for comment about such exports.

"When California has low production, they import raw olives to finish processing them in the United States, mostly from Spain," said Asemesa's Secretary General Antonio de Mora. 

Spain exported 6,300 tonnes of semi-processed olives in 2024 alongside 36,000 tonnes of green olives and 9,800 tonnes of black olives.

The U.S. measures failed to bolster domestic growers.

Imports of table olives surged by 40% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2017, trade data shows, with Egypt, Portugal, and Turkey increasing exports the most. 

Spanish exports of green olives to the U.S. grew by 18% during the same period, partially offsetting a decline in black olive exports.

However, Spanish producers remain concerned about the new tariffs.

"It's like adding rain to wet ground," Asaja's Martin said.

($1 = 0.8603 euros)