10:44 AM EDT, 03/11/2026 (MT Newswires) -- CIBC published a noted dated March 10 on the implications for Canada's airline sector with the release from Statistics Canada of international travel data For February.

The bank noted the data continues to show that Canadian transborder activity remains materially lower on a Y/Y basis. However, CIBC said, sequential trends increasingly point to a bottoming process in Canada-U.S. air traffic. It noted hile volumes remain below prior year levels, the pace of decline has moderated, and recent months suggest stabilization following the mid-2025 downturn. "This is also consistent with the broader Canadian airline sector's increasingly rational approach to transborder capacity, with carriers actively resizing schedules to match demand," it added.

Among highlights, CIBC noted for the month of February, the number of Canadian residents returning to Canada by air from the U.S. was about 483k. Looking at the daily average, it was up 8% M/M (January was up 5% M/M) and down 18% Y/Y (January was also down 18% Y/Y).

For travel by automobile, the number of Canadian residents returning to Canada by automobile was near 950k. Looking at the daily average for the month of February, it was broadly flat M/M, but down 18% Y/Y, an improvement from down 31% Y/Y in January and the best Y/Y result since January 2025.

On the supply side, CIBC said Canadian peers are pulling back from marginal transborder flying, with WestJet cutting U.S. routes and capacity for summer 2026 and Transat (TRZ.TO) reportedly exiting its remaining U.S. markets.

Within this context, the bank noted Air Canada's ( ACDVF ) Q4 2025 call commentary frames transborder as "status quo" in 2026, with a more supportive supply/demand balance. "Near term Y/Y may stay negative, but sequential trends and capacity pullbacks point to a gradual normalization as comps ease," CIBC said.

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