LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Systematic trading strategies
including those run by hedge funds continue to dump trades,
adding to about $109 billion of global equity futures sold in
the past month, Goldman Sachs ( GS ) strategist Scott Rubner said in a
note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
Selling will likely continue into the autumn, and the second
half of September might prove "a tricky trading environment,"
said the note, which was released on Monday.
A systematic trading strategy uses strict rules rather
than a speculator's gut feeling, and sometimes includes coding
and algorithms, to guide trading and investment decisions.
August kicked off with a meltdown in world equity markets
that started after investor positioning in the yen and other
currencies was wrong-footed by a Bank of Japan interest rate
hike and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data.
Rubner said one factor that drove the meltdown was
systematic trading programs used by so-called "commodity trading
advisors" (CTA) that ride market trends, but when certain risk
thresholds are reached, require the trading programme to ditch
the position.
"Systematic rules-based deleveraging from CTA strategies
remain the most important impact in the market period...We just
witnessed one of the largest and fastest unwinds that I have
seen," said Rubner, a tactical strategist for Goldman.
LEVERAGE AT A PEAK
Leverage used by hedge funds to increase the size of trades
is at a record high for the last decade, according to data
provided by the Office of Financial Research's Hedge Fund
Monitor.
Its data shows that U.S.-registered hedge funds ended March
with $2.3 trillion in borrowing from prime brokers, up roughly
63% from December 2019 and outpacing their assets' growth.
Traders dropped the bulk of stock futures over the past
week, totaling around $80 billion, after Monday's brutal stock
selloff triggered by the unwinding of billions of dollars' worth
of leveraged trades, the Goldman note said.
Wall Street's favoured market fear gauge, the CBOE
Volatility Index, closed at its highest in nearly four
years on Aug. 5.
In the last three weeks, top book liquidity in benchmark S&P
500 stocks, the number of trades visibly on offer to buy
and sell, has fallen 80%, data from the note showed. This
number, indicating how easy it would be to purchase or leave
stock trades, has sunk to $5 million currently, from $26 million
in July, it said.
Options bets against volatility or wagers that stock markets
would stay calm have also continued to unwind, said the note.
Pension funds seasonally rebalance in September and this
time, they'll "further sell" equity exposure, it added.
Given pensions' increased funded status, or the balance
between what they owe to savers and the value of their
investment assets, Rubner reckoned these investors, some of the
biggest in the world, would take advantage of lower bond yields
and drop stocks in favour of fixed income.