SAO PAULO, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Lower chances of climate

phenomenon La Nina emerging this year should limit the risks of

soybean crops in southern Brazil and Argentina facing a lack of

rainfall in the 2024/25 season, consultancy StoneX ( SNEX ) said on

Thursday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Brazil and Argentina are the world's largest and

third-largest soybean producers, respectively. Brazil is also

the world's largest exporter.

The La Nina phenomenon tends to be associated with a drier

weather pattern in the southern part of South America,

potentially harming soybean crop development.

BACKGROUND

StoneX ( SNEX ) kept its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean

production at a record 165 million metric tons, well above last

year's 149 million, despite some initial planting delays due to

what it called "extremely dry and hot weather."

U.S. weather agency CPC estimated on Thursday that the

chances of La Nina occurring by November stand at 60%, versus

71% in the previous month's forecast.

KEY QUOTES

"If the phenomenon emerges, forecasts indicate that it would

be a La Nina of weak intensity and short duration," StoneX ( SNEX )

expert Ana Luiza Lodi said in a presentation.

"That should also paint a better scenario for the Argentine

crop, with less chances of severe droughts."

Similarly, AccuWeather meteorologist Jason Nicholls said "it

still looks like a weak La Nina will form over the next few

months, and it should be short-lived."