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StubHub's Lack of Guidance Adds to Uncertainty Around Near-Term Growth, BofA Says in Downgrade
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StubHub's Lack of Guidance Adds to Uncertainty Around Near-Term Growth, BofA Says in Downgrade
Nov 14, 2025 10:13 AM

12:59 PM EST, 11/14/2025 (MT Newswires) -- StubHub's ( STUB ) decision to withhold financial guidance has only added to uncertainty around its potential growth drivers in the near term, BofA Securities said in a note e-mailed Friday.

The ticketing marketplace for live events late Thursday posted a third-quarter loss of $4.27 a share, widening from $0.15 a year earlier, while revenue rose to $468.1 million from $433.8 million. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a loss of $2.87 on revenue of $451.8 million. "We look forward to sharing our outlook during our next earnings call in early 2026," StubHub ( STUB ) Chief Executive Eric Baker told analysts, according to a FactSet transcript.

BofA said that while it was looking for greater visibility around the company's growth drivers amid Wall Street's concerns regarding 2026 gross merchandise sales, or GMS, growth acceleration, it was left with "more near-term uncertainty" following the call.

The brokerage downgraded its rating on the StubHub ( STUB ) stock to neutral from buy and trimmed its price target to $19 from $25.

The company's shares were down nearly 21% in Friday afternoon trade. The stock debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in September.

"While we think that 2026 concert season outlook could improve from here as Live Nation (LYV) recently indicated 'a great (2026) pipeline', we have less confidence in (StubHub's ( STUB ) fourth-quarter estimates) and 2026 GMS growth," BofA analyst Justin Post wrote.

The brokerage lowered its GMS outlook for the fourth quarter to $2.49 billion from $2.58 billion, citing "tough comps and all-in pricing" challenges. "In addition to a lower GMS base, we also lower our out-year estimates for both direct issuance sales and advertising revenues, as we believe a more conservative approach to 2026 estimates is reasonable until visibility on both initiatives improves," Post said.

BofA is now projecting 2026 GMS at $12.68 billion, compared with its prior estimate of $13.27 billion. "While StubHub ( STUB ) intends to provide annual 2026 guidance on its (fourth-quarter) earnings call, we expect the 2026 estimate overhang to continue," Post said.

On the earnings call, StubHub ( STUB ) Chief Financial Officer Constance James said the implementation of all-in pricing had an estimated 10% one-time impact on the size of the North American secondary ticketing market.

"We expect this transition effect will continue to influence year-over-year comparisons through May 2026, as we cycle through the full 12-month period following the May 2025 implementation date," James told analysts. "Even with this temporary growth headwind, our results demonstrate the resilience of our business model and our ability to continue to gain market share in this dynamic environment."

Price: 14.91, Change: -3.91, Percent Change: -20.78

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