NEW YORK, July 24 (Reuters) - The global sugar market is
expected to have a smaller-than-anticipated supply surplus in
2024/25 (Oct-Sept) despite rising production in Asia, due to a
significant reduction on the Brazilian crop, broker StoneX ( SNEX ) said
on Wednesday.
StoneX ( SNEX ) cut its projection for Brazil's Centre-South
sugar output by nearly 2 million metric tons to 40.5 million
tons due to this year's lower quality of the sugarcane and a
smaller-than-expected cane allocation to sugar production.
The broker said Brazilian mills are keeping a relatively
high level of ethanol production, answering to higher domestic
demand, so they are not earmarking the amount of cane to sugar
production that was expected at the start of the harvest in
March.
It cut its view on total cane allocation to sugar, the
so-called sugar mix, to 50.5% for the crop from 52% projected in
May.
Other major changes for large producers included an increase
of 500,000 tons for China to 11 million tons and a reduction of
200,000 tons for Russia to 6.8 million tons. India's number was
kept at 28.8 million tons.
As a result, The broker projected a surplus of 1.21 million
metric tons in 2024/25 from 2.51 million tons estimated in May.
The view is slightly more positive for sugar prices than
recent updates on projections by other analysts, who actually
increased their estimates on the surplus.