CHICAGO/LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - Record summer travel
demand was tipped to translate into bumper earnings for airlines
- but quarterly reports are looking less than stellar.
While plenty of customers are flocking to travel
destinations worldwide, airlines are finding an excess supply of
seats in the price-sensitive end of the market has forced them
to discount fares to fill their planes.
This week, earnings from American and Southwest
Airlines ( LUV ) are expected to deliver more bad news following
downbeat outlooks for the quarter from United, Delta
, Alaska Airlines, and Ryanair.
Airline executives attributed the overcapacity to an
overoptimistic view of travel demand, which by most standards
has been robust.
Passenger traffic in the U.S. is hitting records levels this
year. In the first six months, the U.S. Transportation Security
Administration (TSA) screened an average of about 2.46 million
airline passengers per day, up 6% from last year.
"It was just that airlines were hoping that it (demand) was
going to be even stronger," Alaska's CFO Shane Tackett said in
an interview.
In addition to the discounting pressure, new labor contracts
and higher lease rates and maintenance costs have driven up the
industry's operating expenses.
In May, American slashed its second-quarter profit forecast,
citing weaker pricing power in the domestic market, and while
the Texas-based carrier has vowed a reboot, analysts say
reversing course will be time-consuming and costly.
"American's network leaves it more exposed to the markets
currently most oversupplied and less able to offset the higher
cost environment," said TD Cowen analyst Thomas Fitzgerald.
Southwest ( LUV ) has been hit hard by Boeing's jet delivery delays,
and it is under pressure from an activist investor to oust its
CEO, overhaul the board, and shake up its business.
The low-cost carrier has cut its second-quarter revenue
outlook. Fitzgerald said Southwest ( LUV ) has few levers to materially
boost its revenue performance, raising the risk to its balance
sheet.
Both American and Southwest ( LUV ) will report earnings on
Thursday.
EUROPE'S POSSIBLE STRUGGLES
The first quarter for European airlines was tougher than
anticipated, and Ryanair's second-quarter results
offered little solace for investors on Monday.
Ryanair's profits slumped by almost half for the quarter
after ticket prices plunged 15% as customers balked at higher
prices.
Analysts warn these pricing worries could spread across the
sector in Europe. "More aggressive pricing by the market leader
is likely to result in adverse fallout for the other European
airlines," Liberum analyst Gerald Khoo said in a note.
Deutsche Lufthansa slashed its 2024 earnings
guidance for a second time and issued a profit warning for its
second quarter last week due to weaker yields.
Earnings of British budget carrier easyJet on Wednesday and
Air France-KLM on Thursday will add clarity to the
cost and revenue pressures, with some fearing that Air
France-KLM may not be able to bounce back from a weaker first
quarter.
European airline shares fell across the board on Monday,
with Ryanair the hardest hit, down 14%.
Wizz Air ( WZZAF ) CEO Jozsef Varadi said the budget carrier was still
expecting yields to go up long-term, although it did face
limitations tied to RTX engine checks, grounding a number of its
fleet.
"I think we are doing better than this," Varadi told
Reuters, referring to Ryanair's challenges over softer pricing.
U.S. airlines are now moderating capacity. Annual domestic
seat growth is estimated to slow to 3% in the September quarter
from 6% a quarter ago. Some carriers hope this will boost their
pricing power, but that may not be enough to increase earnings.
United currently expects full-year earnings to fall to the
low end of its $9-to-$11 per share forecast. The company is
banking on rivals to further reduce unprofitable flying to help
lift profits.
"While we see this incredible inflection upon us in the
industry, the precise timing and magnitude is difficult to
call," United's President Brett Hart told investors on Thursday.