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Surplus capacity limits impact of sanctions on oil prices, IEA says
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Surplus capacity limits impact of sanctions on oil prices, IEA says
Oct 27, 2025 9:39 PM

*

300 bcm of LNG to enter market in 2026-2030

*

ASEAN power demand to grow 300GW in next decade

*

Coal to be part of solution to meet growing electricity

demand

*

Calls on Asian countries to mine and process critical

minerals

(Adds comments, details on sanctions, prices in paragraphs 2,

3-12)

By Florence Tan and Siyi Liu

SINGAPORE, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Sanctions on oil-exporting

countries could push up crude prices but the effect will be

limited because of surplus capacity, the International Energy

Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday.

Global oil prices jumped more than 7% last week

with Brent futures trading at $65 per barrel after U.S.

President Donald Trump hit Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil

with

sanctions

to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the

Ukraine war.

While sanctions could push prices upward, the effect is

limited with oil prices holding at around $60 due to a huge

amount of surplus capacity, Birol told reporters on the

sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week.

The sanctions prompted Chinese state oil majors to suspend

Russian oil purchases in the short term, trade sources told

Reuters. Refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne

Russian oil, were set to sharply cut Russian crude imports,

industry sources said.

However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries and their allies, also known as OPEC+, is leaning

towards a modest output boost in December, four sources familiar

with the talks said.

"Today, despite so many political tensions around the

world, Middle East, Russia, Ukraine, major economic, trade wars,

oil prices are still $60, exactly what we said," Birol said

"The oil and gas markets will enter a very distinct

period, which is in the absence of major geopolitical tensions,

we are going to see lower oil and gas prices."

About 300 billion cubic metres of new liquefied natural

gas supply will be entering the market between 2026 and 2030, of

these half will be from the U.S., Canada, Australia and Qatar,

Birol said.

He also expects coal to remain a part of the solution

for skyrocketing electricity demand in the region in the next 10

years, which could see ASEAN requiring additional electricity of

300 gigawatts, equal to one Japan.

Birol also called on Asian countries to mine and process

critical minerals to diversify supply.

The United States signed a

flurry of deals

on trade and critical minerals with four Southeast Asian

partners on Sunday, looking to address trade imbalances and

diversify supply chains amid tighter export curbs on rare earths

by China.

"To mine them, but more importantly, to refine and

process them, because just mining and ... export it as it is, is

a lazy approach," Birol said.

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