11:38 AM EST, 01/21/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The fourth-quarter 2024 reporting season for Canadian oil and gas producers, starting Feb. 6 with ARC Resources ( AETUF ) , could focus on growth expectations and return of capital programs, but are likely to be overshadowed in the near term by tariff concerns and other global macro risks, RBC Capital Markets said in a Monday note.

RBC's fourth-quarter 2024 production and cash flow estimates sit slightly below FactSet consensus figures on recent revisions, with 2025 capex and production growth positioned to increase by 3% and 6%, respectively.

Cash flow per share estimates are up 16% quarter over quarter as the bank revised its production outlooks to reflect outages and company-specific factors.

Updated estimates placed fourth-quarter 2024 cash flow per share at +1% to +23% quarter over quarter for oil and gas-weighted names, reflecting commodity pricing and a weakened Canadian dollar, RBC said.

RBC's fourth-quarter 2024 cash flow per share estimates are 2% below consensus while production is in line.

While fourth-quarter 2024 benchmark AECO gas prices mapped to $1.49 per thousand cubic feet (mcf), which was down 35% year over year, this was in part offset by diversified sales points, hedging and liquids production.

Free cash flow yields for 2025 now map to 15%. RBC expects free cash flow of $1.4 billion to be generated during the quarter, allocated around 60% to gas-weighted producers and the rest to oil-weighted producers.

Production growth in 2025 and 2026 maps to +6% year over year on cash flows of $16.7 billion for 2025 and $16.8 billion for 2026. RBC expects 100% of its coverage universe to grow volumes based on its current outlook.

While AECO gas prices remain very low and there have only been selective shut-ins to date, this is largely due to the expectation of higher winter pricing plus the effect of fairly robust liquids pricing and hedging.

RBC's estimates incorporate capital spending of $10.7 billion for 2025 and $10.9 billion for 2026, mapping to $6.0 billion in free cash flow for 2025 and $5.6 billion for 2026.

Public filings point to fourth-quarter 2024 buybacks executed by ARC with 2.3 million shares for $55 million, Tamarack Valley Energy ( TNEYF ) with 11.7 million shares for $50 million, Whitecap Resources ( SPGYF ) with 3.6 million shares at $37 million, Veren ( VRN ) with 4.6 million shares at $34 million, NuVista Energy ( NUVSF ) with 2.6 million shares at $33 million, and Paramount Resources ( PRMRF ) with 722,000 shares at $22 million.

Price: 26.62, Change: -0.22, Percent Change: -0.82