Aug 6 (Reuters) - The effective tariff rate on U.S.

imports will settle near 22% and duties on sensitive sectors

critical to national security are unlikely to be lifted,

JPMorgan Chase's ( JPM ) Center for Geopolitics wrote in a

report on Wednesday.

Tariffs are being viewed across party lines as vital to

enhancing the U.S. industrial base in strategic sectors such as

semiconductors and defense, making a rollback unlikely even

after President Donald Trump's term, the report said.

While much of the market optimism has stemmed from the

belief that tariffs are primarily a political bargaining tool,

the report hints at a more nuanced trade landscape.

Recent trade deals have fueled hopes that the White House

may eventually soften its stance, but the report said

expectations of a return to pre-Trump policies may be misplaced.

"It would be a mistake to assume that the United States

returns to an era of low tariffs and the pursuit of

comprehensive free trade agreements," the report said.

"Even if the next U.S. president supports a pre-2017

approach to trade policy, they would face a number of challenges

to unwinding the Trump administration's tariff structure."

As more times passes, companies might also recalibrate their

investments accordingly, reducing the chances of going back to

the previous trade regime.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) launched the Center for Geopolitics in May to help

businesses navigate disruptions from global instability and

other economic challenges. It is led by Derek Chollet, who has

served in the Pentagon, the State Department, the White House

and Congress.

A report last month by the JPMorganChase Institute estimated

that the implementation of full universal tariffs announced on

April 2 could add up to $187.7 billion in direct import costs

for midsize companies, more than six times the cost of earlier

tariffs in place at the start of 2025.

(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru and Nupur Anand in New

York; Editing by Arun Koyyur)