06:49 AM EDT, 10/31/2024 (MT Newswires) -- In its fall fiscal update presented Wednesday, the Ontario provincial government maintained its path back to balance and formally announced previously-telegraphed measures, such as rebate checks extension of the natural gas and fuel tax cuts, that will support household incomes in the coming year, noted TD.

However, the road back to black ink will remain "challenging," as it will require spending growth to be held at a very modest pace, said the bank.

"Fortunately," the government is benefitting from a better starting point, with this year's deficit now pegged at C$6.6 billion, versus about C$10 billion in the spring budget, stated TD.

Net debt-to-GDP is also much improved this fiscal year, although is projected to hold near its current level over the medium term, pointed out the bank. Capital spending will upwardly pressure the ratio.

The provincial government expects economic growth to pick up next year, added the bank.

Although the federal government's plan to sharply slow population growth poses a downside risk to consumer spending, weaker immigration could incentivize more investment and could soften fiscal spending demands over the next few years, according to TD.