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TD Says Canada Labour Market "Continues To Exude Decent Strength", But Not Forcing BoC's Hand
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TD Says Canada Labour Market "Continues To Exude Decent Strength", But Not Forcing BoC's Hand
Nov 9, 2024 1:11 PM

09:18 AM EST, 11/08/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian labour market gained 14.5k positions in October, with full-time employment up 25.6k and part-time employment down 11.2k. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.5% and the participation rate declined 0.1 percentage point to 64.8%.

According to TD Economics it was "another solid jobs report" in October. It noted job gains were concentrated in full-time positions, with the cyclically sensitive private sector pulling the weight. Employees were working more hours and saw wage growth increase. Not to mention, TD noted, we are seeing employment for youth starting to bounce back. "All told," the bank added, "this report speaks of a labour market that continues to exude decent strength."

TD noted the question now is: to cut by 50 bps or 25 bps? That's the question for the Bank of Canada, which recently accelerated the pace of rate cuts, with inflation stabilizing around the 2% target. "Yet," TD said, "the labour market hasn't been forcing the BoC's hand."

Today's report, TD said, should encourage the bank to revert back to a 25 bp cut in December (TD's call), "even if it means eating some crow on its one off 50 bp move previously". But, TD added, if it is dead set on getting its policy rate back into its neutral range (2.25% to 3.25%) by year end, a 50 bp move would be the choice. It noted: "Investors are uncertain which way the BoC will go, and given recent rhetoric from the central bank, it too doesn't seems to know which way it will go either."

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