09:13 AM EST, 11/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- April through July kick-started a modest recovery in Canadian home sales after a couple of months of dredging the bottom, said TD.

However, sales have see-sawed since, wrote the bank in a note to clients. Canadian average home prices, meanwhile, have managed to climb 5% from April through October, supported by tight conditions in much of the country outside of British Columbia and Ontario.

It's early days, but TD is tracking softer Q4 gains for home sales and home prices than previously projected.

Economic uncertainty is weighing on the market a bit more and offering some offset to past interest rate relief, stated the bank. This weight is likely to persist next year, as CUSMA re-negotiations get underway.

Accordingly, this suggests only modest downgrades to TD's 2026 projections for growth in Canadian home sales and average home prices.

The more important factor is that the changes don't alter the narrative that the Canadian housing market will remain on a path of gradual recovery, supported by pent-up demand and a stabilization in the job market, added the bank.