07:10 AM EST, 11/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will report September and Q3 gross domestic product data on Friday, said TD.

The bank's expectation is that growth will register somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0% on a quarterly annualized basis. This forecast, however, has an additional layer of uncertainty embedded in it as the United States government shutdown delayed the release of Canadian trade data.

Given the swings in trade in Q2, this forms a vital input into the projection -- so its absence is adding uncertainty, noted TD.

The bank awaits clarity on when the information will be released and whether Statistics Canada's estimates of Q3 GDP will incorporate the information or rely on its own estimates of the figure.

All told, signs point to slow growth for Canada in Q3, with some stubbornness in inflation, TD said. This is broadly in line with the Bank of Canada's latest projections and suggests that a policy shift isn't imminent.