LOS ANGELES, Oct 10 (Reuters) - For a businessman who
perpetually struggles with broken promises, Elon Musk gave
himself quite a to-do list Thursday night at Tesla's
long-awaited Hollywood unveiling of its driverless robotaxis.
After traversing the fake streets of the Warner Bros movie
studio set in a sleek, silver two-door "Cybercab" prototype,
Musk promised that the company's popular Model 3 and Model Y
vehicles would be able to operate without driver supervision in
California and Texas by next year.
He said the company would start building the fully
autonomous Cybercab by 2026 at a price of less than $30,000, and
showed off a robovan capable of transporting 20 people around
town - products he said would reshape cities by "turning parking
lots into parks."
Later came the dancing humanoid robots that also mixed
drinks at the bar. Tesla will sell those, too, Musk said,
eventually for $20,000 to $30,000 a piece. "I think this will be
the biggest product ever, of any kind," he declared.
Thursday night's electronic dance music-infused event had
the signature trappings of Musk's salesmanship, but some Tesla
investors and experts said they were hoping for more concrete
details on how the company plans to transform from an automaker
into an autonomous driving and artificial intelligence titan
with a solid business plan.
"His vision is lovely, but somebody has to actualize it,"
said Ross Gerber, a Tesla shareholder and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki
Wealth and Investment Management. "For now, for the next 24
months, Tesla has to sell EVs. Why aren't we focused on that?"
Gerber said he was happy to see products like the Cybercab
and the robovan, but hoped to also see a more traditional,
lower-priced mass-market vehicle that the company could sell in
the near future.
Musk had for years pledged to sell a car expected to start
at about $25,000, a promise that investors saw as critical to
winning new customers. Reuters reported exclusively on April 5
that Tesla had abandoned this project, initially sending Tesla
shares down. Musk responded by posting later that day on X that
Tesla would unveil a robotaxi on Aug. 8, which was later delayed
to October.
'YEARS BEHIND'
Tesla is aiming to leapfrog incumbent self-driving players,
including Alphabet's Waymo, by pursuing a lower-cost
technological path that Musk believes will allow the company to
scale up its autonomous vehicles far quicker than rivals.
Tesla's strategy is simpler and much cheaper than that of
its rivals, but has critical weaknesses. Chief among those is
that the AI technology underpinning its self-driving system
makes it nearly impossible to pinpoint why a crash or other
failure occurred - something that could concern regulators.
"Tesla software is at least years behind where Waymo is.
That's the hard part. No flashy vehicle design is going to
change that," said Matthew Wansley, professor at New York's
Cardozo School of Law.
Tesla's rivals use similar AI and camera technology, but
layer on so-called redundant systems and more-expensive sensors
as a safety precaution.
Ramesh Poola, co-chief investment officer at Creative
Planning, which holds Tesla shares, said he was impressed by the
presentation but "obviously, we were looking for more details on
what exactly his future plans are going to be and how he's going
to monetize this new AI and robotics."
In particular, Poola said he anticipates regulators will
pose a "major hurdle" to Musk's plans to shift to unsupervised
autonomous driving by next year. Tesla's current "Full
Self-Driving" driver-assistance feature cannot be operated
safely without a human driver paying constant attention.
"He's shown the prototypes and definitely there's some
excitement around it," Poola said. But widespread adoption of
autonomous Cybercabs, where riders can hail rides through an
Uber-style app, are still "maybe three to four years away," he
said.
That is not necessarily a bad thing, Poola said, adding that
he will be telling clients not to sell Tesla stock. "There are
lots and lots of avenues to monetize this technology," he said.
"Cybercab may not necessarily be next year, but down the road,
the viability is there."
Musk had previously said he planned to operate a fleet of
self-driving Tesla taxis that passengers can hail through an
app. He made no mention of the app at Thursday's event.
Tasha Keeney, director of investment analysis at Tesla
investor ARK Investment Management, said she had been hoping for
more specifics on the app.
However, Keeney said she was encouraged by Musk's timeline
of offering an unsupervised version of its full self-driving
system in Texas and California next year.
"If they can do that, I don't see why they wouldn't launch a
robotaxi service soon after," she said.