April 2 (Reuters) - Wall Street is bracing for Tesla

to report a drop in first-quarter vehicle deliveries on

Wednesday, but analysts and investors cannot agree on how bad

the decline would be.

An average of 15 analysts who lowered their forecasts in the

past 30 days expect deliveries to drop 3.7%, according to

Visible Alpha, but some analysts and investors termed it

conservative and predicted as much as 12% slide.

CEO Elon Musk has pledged a return to growth after Tesla's

annual deliveries dipped last year, but waning demand for its

aging line up of electric vehicles and a backlash against his

political stance could make that promise a hard one to keep.

Musk's advisory role to U.S. President Donald Trump, through

which he has been instrumental in firing thousands of federal

workers and cutting humanitarian aid, has sparked discontent

among some customers.

Protests at Tesla stores in the U.S. and Europe have spiked,

and Tesla cars are being vandalized. Some data indicates a rise

in Tesla owners trading in their vehicles.

Investors are waiting to see if refreshed models like the

Model Y and incentives have helped counter weak demand and tough

race from Chinese rivals including BYD and

European competitors such as Volkswagen and BMW

.

Tesla's sales in key European markets fell again in March,

with sales in France and Sweden dropping for a third straight

month.

Tesla began offering the refreshed Model Y, featuring

updated styling and enhanced interiors, in China late February

and in the U.S. and Europe last month.

Data from auto industry associations and analyst estimates

point to notable declines in Tesla sales during the first two

months of the year in the U.S., Europe, and China.

Analysts expect Tesla to report deliveries of about 372,410

vehicles for the January-March period, down from 386,810

vehicles a year ago.

Tesla has indicated plans to launch a lower-priced model

based on its existing platform this year, but is yet to release

specific details about the vehicle.

Its pricey Cybertruck pickup, launched in late 2023, has

seen limited demand due to its polarizing trapezoidal design and

quality concerns. Tesla recently recalled nearly all

Cybertrucks to address a potential exterior panel issue.

While Tesla may see less pain from the new 25% tariffs on

imported vehicles due to its U.S.-based manufacturing, Musk has

said cost implications are "significant". Tesla has also warned

about potential retaliatory tariffs in response to the levies.