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Tesla's Valuation Largely Driven by Optimus, Robotaxi Prospects, Truist Says
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Tesla's Valuation Largely Driven by Optimus, Robotaxi Prospects, Truist Says
Oct 23, 2025 11:26 AM

01:59 PM EDT, 10/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla's (TSLA) near-term deliveries and financial results are less relevant to its valuation than future artificial intelligence projects such as humanoid robot Optimus and Robotaxi, Truist Securities said in a Thursday note.

The electric vehicle maker's auto delivery data and earnings are "decreasingly" relevant to its stock price, Truist analyst William Stein wrote after the company delivered mixed third-quarter performance late Wednesday.

"Most of the value of the shares is tied up in AI projects including (full self-driving), robotaxi, and especially Optimus," Stein wrote. "All of the AI projects are at once quite unproven (close to zero revenue), and potentially extremely valuable."

Tesla's auto and energy businesses each account for 11% of the stock's valuation, according to Stein.

As Tesla shares trade at 104 times peak earnings per share and 177 times the estimated 2026 EPS, "it is impossible to say with a straight face that investors aren't putting a lot of AI future potential into valuation," Stein said.

Truist reiterated its hold rating on the stock.

Separately, RBC Capital Markets said the company's AI ventures such as Robotaxi and Optimus remain "on track."

Tesla plans to unveil the third version of Optimus "probably" in the first quarter, Chief Executive Elon Musk told analysts on an earnings call, though he said "bringing Optimus to market is an incredibly difficult task."

"(Optimus) won't even seem like a robot, it will seem like a person in a robot suit," he said, according to a FactSet transcript.

For Robotaxi, Tesla expects to have "no safety drivers in at least large parts" of Austin by the end of this year, Musk said.

"Management highlighted progress on robotaxis, aiming for expanded operations across metro areas by year-end and increased FSD adoption globally," RBC analyst Tom Narayan said in a note e-mailed Thursday. "Optimus development remains a significant challenge, but we believe Tesla's manufacturing scale and vertical integration provide a competitive edge in bringing humanoids to market."

RBC maintained its outperform rating on the stock, with a $500 price target.

Price: 449.05, Change: +10.08, Percent Change: +2.30

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