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Flight bookings drop 4.5% year-over-year, Cirium reports

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Airlines report mixed estimates for Thanksgiving travel

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Travelers avoiding busy airports like Atlanta's

Hartsfield-Jackson

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Bus and train bookings rise 17% year-over-year, Wanderu

reports

By Doyinsola Oladipo

NEWARK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - A record number of Americans

had been expected to fly during Thanksgiving, but a 43-day

government shutdown dampened demand for one of the year's

busiest travel seasons.

Many skittish travelers rethought their plans as

cancellations and delays mounted while the shutdown wore on.

"It's not worth the mental strain and worry and what-ifs

and if I get stranded, where am I going to get stuck?" said

Elizabeth Kelley, 45. During the shutdown, she decided she would

not fly home to Maine to visit family for Thanksgiving because

she feared delays and cancellations. Her plans have not changed.

About 6 million U.S. travelers were expected to take

domestic flights during the holiday, up 2% from 2024, according

to the AAA. But bookings slowed after the shutdown hit the

one-month mark. The steepest drop came during the final week

when the Federal Aviation Administration ordered flight cuts at

40 major airports.

As of November 24, flight bookings for the five-day

holiday period are down 4.48% from a year ago, according to data

from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Bookings were up 1.56% on

October 31, but have steadily declined.

At Newark Airport on Monday, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford

said at a press conference that travelers should be confident

but prepare for busy airports and potential weather issues.

"For us, this week is our Super Bowl, and I'm here to

tell you, we've got a great plan," Beford said. "Please know you

should fly with confidence."

Southwest Airlines ( LUV ) said the shutdown and economic

uncertainty made it difficult to forecast Thanksgiving demand.

Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) expects to fly roughly 6.5 million

customers, similar to last year.

Some airlines were planning for a surge in last-minute bookings

as travelers regain confidence.

United Airlines said it expected about 6.6 million

customers over a 13-day period, the most passengers the airline

has ever flown during a Thanksgiving holiday. American Airlines ( AAL )

said it will operate nearly 81,000 flights during the

same period, up from 77,000 in 2024.

The FAA said it anticipates that this Thanksgiving holiday

travel period will be the busiest in 15 years, with the most

passengers expected on Tuesday, November 25.

"I don't usually get such quick and last minute bookings,"

said Kimberly Hillard, co-owner of Front Porch Travel in

Annapolis, Maryland. "I had two last-minute bookings this week,

one to Aruba and the other for Costa Rica," she said, after many

of her clients put their travel plans on hold during the

shutdown.

Many airline travelers plan to avoid major hubs. For

instance, Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson, the busiest U.S.

airport, will see 7.6% fewer Thanksgiving travelers.

Amtrak said it expects record train travelers this year

after 1.2 million Americans booked trips with the railroad last

year. Bus and train marketplace Wanderu has seen demand rise 17%

year-over-year, led by bus bookings.

The effects of the shutdown may drag into Christmas. During

the shutdown, bookings were trending about 0.42% lower

year-over-year, according to an early analysis by Cirium.