financetom
Business
financetom
/
Business
/
Top Wall Street bank pitches options play to ride potential Indian rupee rally to 83
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Top Wall Street bank pitches options play to ride potential Indian rupee rally to 83
Jun 12, 2025 1:36 AM

MUMBAI (Reuters) -Goldman Sachs' sales and trading desk is recommending an options play on the Indian rupee that will pay off if the South Asian currency rallies to 83 per U.S. dollar over the next nine months.

The call - effectively a bet on a 3% appreciation in the rupee from its current level of 85.50 - is underpinned by India's improving macroeconomic fundamentals, a revival in foreign inflows, lower oil prices, and the potential for a U.S.-India trade deal.

The rupee has lagged behind its Asian peers this year, showing little response to the dollar index's more than 9% decline.

Goldman Sachs is recommending buying a 9-month USD/INR binary put option with a strike price of 83. A binary put option is a type of digital option that pays a fixed amount if the currency pair settles below the strike level at the expiry of the contract.

"We chose 9-month tenor for the trade as INR typically tends to appreciate during India's financial year end", which concludes on March 31, according to a sales note from Goldman Sachs.

In support of their constructive outlook on the rupee, Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that India's GDP growth accelerated to 7.4% year-on-year in the March quarter from 6.4% in the previous three months.

Their monthly activity tracker indicates that consumption remained robust in April.

The investment bank's note pointed to a return of foreign equity inflows, with over $4 billion flowing into Indian equities over the past two months. Goldman expects this trend to continue and potentially accelerate, driven by improving corporate earnings.

The possibility of a U.S.-India trade deal and lower oil prices could be other catalysts for the rupee. Goldman said that a rollback of the 10% reciprocal tariff would be seen as a positive development for Indian risk assets and the rupee.

While the U.S. had initially proposed a 26% levy on Indian shipmemts, the country-specific tariffs have been paused until July 8.

On oil, Goldman's commodities research team expects Brent crude to average $60 for the remainder of 2025 and fall to $56 in 2026. Lower energy prices are a net positive for oil-importing countries like India and could support the rupee.

(Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US screened record 3.13 million airline passengers on Sunday
US screened record 3.13 million airline passengers on Sunday
Mar 10, 2026
WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Transportation Security Administration said it screened 3.13 million airline passengers on Sunday, the highest number for a single day. The record travel coincided with the peak day of the Thanksgiving travel season and occurred despite weather issues in the U.S. Midwest. The prior record for a single day was June 22 when 3.09...
Sharpie maker Newell Brands to cut 900 jobs, take up to $90 million charges
Sharpie maker Newell Brands to cut 900 jobs, take up to $90 million charges
Mar 10, 2026
Dec 1 (Reuters) - Newell Brands ( NWL ) will cut 900 jobs, or 3.8% of its global workforce, and take up to $90 million in restructuring charges, the Sharpie maker said on Monday. The company will also close about 20 Yankee Candle stores in the U.S. and Canada, collectively representing roughly 1% of brand sales of the scented candles,...
Jones Lang LaSalle Names Amanda Brimmer CFO, Leasing Advisory
Jones Lang LaSalle Names Amanda Brimmer CFO, Leasing Advisory
Mar 10, 2026
10:00 AM EST, 12/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Jones Lang LaSalle ( JLL ) said Monday it has appointed Amanda Brimmer as the chief financial officer of Leasing Advisory and head of corporate development. Brimmer previously served as a managing director and senior partner at the Boston Consulting Group, Jones Lang LaSalle ( JLL ) said. Price: 322.14, Change: -3.53, Percent...
Elastic Earns Amazon's AWS Agentic AI Specialization
Elastic Earns Amazon's AWS Agentic AI Specialization
Mar 10, 2026
10:41 AM EST, 12/01/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Elastic (ESTC) received Amazon.com's ( AMZN ) new Amazon Web Services Agentic AI Specialization, a designation for partners building real-world autonomous AI systems. The recognition highlights work in developing agent-based AI solutions, Elastic said Monday in statement. Elastic shares fell 0.4% in recent Monday trading, and Amazon ( AMZN ) dropped 0.3%. Price:...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved