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Four upstream mega-projects approved this year

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Gas sales deals linked to oil, U.S. prices reduce risk

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Renewables portfolio far exceeds that of peers

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Update expected on cross-listing shares in New York

By America Hernandez

PARIS, Oct 1 - Fresh off a flight from Suriname,

TotalEnergies' CEO is expected to tell investors in New York on

Wednesday that the energy giant can maintain returns through

2030 despite falling prices, thanks to low-cost oil projects

like its most recent in the South American country.

Patrick Pouyanne has also promised to provide an update on

the French group's plans to cross-list shares in New York, as

U.S. investors now account for the majority of shareholders.

After years of investor pressure to pivot towards green energy,

TotalEnergies is now unapologetically focused on

growing its legacy business - its 24 gigawatts of installed

renewable capacity already far exceed the combined portfolios of

peers Shell, BP, Equinor ( EQNR ) and Eni.

But this month, Brent crude dropped below $70 per barrel

from over $90 in April, prompting some analysts to cut share

price forecasts on oil and gas producers and worry the firms may

have to slow dividend payouts and share buybacks.

TotalEnergies, the only European major not to cut dividends

during the COVID crisis, will highlight projects launched this

year in Angola, Brazil and Suriname, which produce oil at low

cost - in some cases under $20 per barrel - as evidence it can

continue to pay out through the downturn.

"We view Total's $8 billion annual buyback as more resilient

than peers' and broadly sustainable at oil prices above $70 per

barrel," said HSBC analyst Kim Fustier in a note ahead of the

meeting.

TotalEnergies is also protecting itself from market

fluctuations by signing long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG)

sales agreements pegged to oil and U.S natural gas prices.

The company is the top exporter of U.S. gas, with about 10

million metric tons of U.S. LNG under contract.

That position - set to grow through 2030 - could become a

liability as global gas prices fall in 2026 and 2027 when more

LNG export projects come online, and as European Union

decarbonization policies render future demand there uncertain.

"With the addition of Rio Grande, Costa Azul and the Cameron

LNG expansion in its portfolio, its short position does look set

to grow," RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria said in a note last

week, referring to a growing gap between TotalEnergies' supplies

and confirmed buyers.

But six long-term LNG contracts signed this year totaling

4.65 million tons annually ensure the company has customers

paying above its costs for its fuel beyond 2030.

To balance out the remaining volumes it takes at prices

pegged to the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, TotalEnergies also

purchased stakes in two upstream U.S. gas fields, giving it

access to cheaper volumes it can profitably sell should Henry

Hub prices rise.

Those additions mean "they are still short over time, but

(the gap is) getting smaller," Borkhataria told Reuters this

week.

TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project, which is still

included in company calculations on annual growth despite being

frozen under force majeure since 2021, remains a worry.

Criminal complaints and investigations in France are ongoing

on Total's possible liability for deaths near the project. Total

has denied wrongdoing.